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Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. · 10-Q · Q3 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
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Asset and Liability Management and Market Risk
For a complete discussion of the Bank's asset and liability management policies, as well as the potential impact of interest rate changes upon the market value of the Bank's portfolios, see "Part II, Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk" in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2025. The analysis presented in the tables below reflects the level of market risk at the Bank, including the cash the holding company has on deposit at the Bank.
The rates of interest the Bank earns on its assets and pays on its liabilities are generally established contractually for a period of time. Fluctuations in interest rates have a significant impact not only upon our net income, but also upon the cash flows and market values of our assets and liabilities. Our results of operations, like those of other financial institutions, are impacted by changes in interest rates and the interest rate sensitivity of our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities. Risk associated with changes in interest rates on the earnings of the Bank and the market value of its financial assets and liabilities is known as interest rate risk. Interest rate risk is our most significant market risk, and our ability to adapt to changes in interest rates is known as interest rate risk management.
The general objective of our interest rate risk management program is to determine and manage an appropriate level of interest rate risk while maximizing net interest income in a manner consistent with our policy to manage, to the extent practicable, the exposure of net interest income to changes in market interest rates. The Board of Directors and Asset and Liability Management Committee ("ALCO") regularly review the Bank's interest rate risk exposure by forecasting the impact of hypothetical, alternative interest rate environments on net interest income and the market value of portfolio equity ("MVPE") at various dates. The MVPE is defined as the net of the present value of cash flows from existing assets, liabilities, and off-balance sheet instruments. The present values are determined based upon market conditions as of the date of the analysis, as well as in alternative interest rate environments providing potential changes in the MVPE under those environments. Net interest income is projected in the same alternative interest rate environments with both a static balance sheet and with management strategies considered. The MVPE and net interest income analyses are also conducted to estimate our sensitivity to rates for future time horizons based upon market conditions as of the date of the analysis. The MVPE ratio continues to be an important measurement for management as we consider the changes in market rates, liquidity needs, and portfolio balances. MVPE represents a long-term view of the interest sensitivity of the Bank's balance sheet while our net interest income projections inform management of the short-term impacts of pricing decisions. In addition to the interest rate environments presented below, management also reviews the impact of non-parallel rate shock scenarios on a quarterly basis. These scenarios consist of flattening and steepening the yield curve by changing short-term and long-term interest rates independent of each other, and simulating cash flows and determining valuations as a result of these hypothetical changes in interest rates to identify rate environments that pose the greatest risk to the Bank. This analysis helps management quantify the Bank's exposure to changes in the shape of the yield curve.
General assumptions used by management to evaluate the sensitivity of our financial performance to changes in interest rates presented in the tables below are utilized in, and set forth under, the gap table and related notes. Although management finds these assumptions reasonable, the interest rate sensitivity of our assets and liabilities and the estimated effects of changes in interest rates on our net interest income and MVPE indicated in the below tables could vary substantially if different assumptions were used or actual experience differs from the assumptions. To illustrate this point, the projected cumulative excess (deficiency) of interest-earning assets over interest-bearing liabilities within the next 12 months as a percentage of total assets ("one-year gap") is also provided for up/down 200 basis point scenarios, as of June 30, 2026.
Qualitative Disclosure about Market Risk
Gap Table. The following gap table summarizes the anticipated maturities or repricing periods of the Bank's interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities based on the information and assumptions set forth in the notes below. Cash flow projections for mortgage-related assets are calculated based in part on prepayment assumptions at current and projected interest rates. Prepayment projections are subjective in nature, involve uncertainties and assumptions and, therefore, cannot be determined with a high degree of accuracy. Although certain assets and liabilities may have similar maturities or periods to repricing, they may react differently to changes in market interest rates. Assumptions may not reflect how actual yields and costs respond to market interest rate changes. The interest rates on certain types of assets and liabilities may fluctuate in advance of changes in market interest rates, while interest rates on other types of assets and liabilities may lag behind changes in market interest rates. Certain assets, such as adjustable-rate loans, often have features that limit changes in interest rates on a short-term basis and over the life of the asset. In the event of a change in interest rates, prepayment rates would likely deviate significantly from those assumed in calculating the gap table below. A positive gap means more cash flows from interest-earning assets are expected to mature or reprice than cash flows from interest-bearing liabilities and suggests that, generally, in a rising rate environment, earnings would increase. A negative gap means more cash flows from interest-bearing liabilities are expected to mature or reprice than cash flows from interest-earning assets and suggests that, generally, in a rising rate environment, earnings would decrease. However, the gap position should not be viewed in isolation as a
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measure of earnings sensitivity relative to a given change in interest rates as it does not incorporate the effects of other key behavioral assumptions, like deposit betas, that influence earnings. For additional information regarding the impact of changes in interest rates, see the following Change in Net Interest Income and Change in MVPE discussions and tables.
More Than More Than
Within One Year to Three Years Over
One Year Three Years to Five Years Five Years Total
Interest-earning assets: (Dollars in thousands)
Loans receivable(1) $ 2,521,472 $ 1,819,115 $ 1,287,109 $ 2,515,018 $ 8,142,714
Securities(2) 186,847 273,744 160,045 154,121 774,757
Other interest-earning assets 116,331 — — — 116,331
Total interest-earning assets 2,824,650 2,092,859 1,447,154 2,669,139 9,033,802
Interest-bearing liabilities:
Non-maturity deposits(3) 1,123,444 746,141 531,748 1,570,565 3,971,898
Certificates of deposit 2,370,489 485,057 33,805 141 2,889,492
Borrowings(4) 461,316 1,167,588 17,573 23,303 1,669,780
Total interest-bearing liabilities 3,955,249 2,398,786 583,126 1,594,009 8,531,170
Excess (deficiency) of interest-earning assets over
interest-bearing liabilities $ (1,130,599) $ (305,927) $ 864,028 $ 1,075,130 $ 502,632
Cumulative excess (deficiency) of interest-earning assets over
interest-bearing liabilities $ (1,130,599) $ (1,436,526) $ (572,498) $ 502,632
Cumulative excess (deficiency) of interest-earning assets over interest-bearing
liabilities as a percent of total Bank assets at:
June 30, 2026 (11.7 %) (14.9 %) (5.9 %) 5.2 %
March 31, 2026 (8.1)
September 30, 2025 (10.1)
Cumulative one-year gap - interest rates +200 bps at:
June 30, 2026 (13.2)
March 31, 2026 (10.3)
September 30, 2025 (12.2)
Cumulative one-year gap - interest rates -200 bps at:
June 30, 2026 (6.9)
March 31, 2026 (3.6)
September 30, 2025 (5.8)
(1)Adjustable-rate loans are included in the period in which the rate is next scheduled to adjust or in the period in which repayments are expected to occur, or prepayments are expected to be received, prior to their next rate adjustment, rather than in the period in which the loans are due. Fixed-rate loans are included in the periods in which they are scheduled to be repaid, based on scheduled amortization and prepayment assumptions. Balances are net of undisbursed amounts and deferred fees and exclude loans 90 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure and large dollar nonaccrual commercial loans.
(2)MBS reflect projected prepayments at amortized cost. All other securities are presented based on contractual maturities, term to call dates or pre-refunding dates as of June 30, 2026, at amortized cost.
(3)Although the Bank's non-maturity deposits are subject to immediate withdrawal, management considers a substantial amount of these accounts to be core deposits having significantly longer effective maturities. The decay rates (the assumed rates at which the balances of existing core deposit accounts decline) used on these accounts are based on assumptions developed from our actual experiences with these accounts. For the purposes of this table, non-core deposit account balances are assumed to be fully subject to repricing within one year (versus decayed over time). If all of the Bank's non-maturity deposits had been assumed to be non-core and, therefore, subject to repricing within one year, interest-bearing liabilities estimated to mature or reprice within one year would have exceeded interest-earning assets with comparable characteristics by $3.98 billion, for a cumulative one-year gap of (41.2%) of total assets.
(4)Borrowings exclude deferred prepayment penalty costs. Included in this line item is a $100.0 million FHLB adjustable-rate advance that is tied to a pay-fixed interest rate swap. The repricing of this liability is projected to occur at the maturity date of the interest rate swap, which will occur in June 2028.
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At June 30, 2026, the Bank's gap between the amount of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities projected to reprice within one year was $1.13 billion, or (11.7%) of total assets, compared to $(983.6) million, or (10.1%) of total assets, at September 30, 2025. The change in the one-year gap amount was due primarily to an increase in the amount of projected liability cash flows coming due in one year, as of June 30, 2026, compared to September 30, 2025, partially offset by an increase in the amount of comparable asset cash flows. The increase in projected liability cash flows was in the deposit portfolio as the Bank's non-maturity deposits increased between the two periods and the amount of cash flows from its certificate of deposit portfolio projected to reprice within one year increased as of June 30, 2026 compared to September 30, 2025. The increase in projected assets cash flows was within the Bank's commercial loan portfolio due to the origination of both adjustable and short-term fixed-rate loans during the current year and, to a lesser extent, the seasoning of its existing fixed-rate commercial loan portfolio. This increase was partially offset by decreases in the amount of cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2026, and the balance of the Bank's one- to four-family loan portfolio.
The amount of interest-bearing liabilities expected to reprice in a given period is not entirely impacted by changes in interest rates as the Bank's borrowings and certificate of deposit portfolios have contractual maturities and generally cannot be terminated early without a prepayment penalty. If interest rates were to increase 200 basis points, as of June 30, 2026, the Bank's one-year gap would have been projected to be $(1.28) billion, or (13.2%) of total assets. If interest rates were to decrease 200 basis points, as of June 30, 2026, the Bank's one-year gap would have been projected to be $(669.0) million, or (6.9%) of total assets. The changes in the gap amounts compared to when there is no change in rates was due to changes in the anticipated net cash flows primarily as a result of projected prepayments on mortgage-related assets in each rate environment. In higher rate environments, prepayments on mortgage-related assets are projected to be lower and, in lower rate environments, prepayments are projected to be higher. This compares to a projected one-year gap of $(1.19) billion, or (12.2%) of total assets, if interest rates were to have increased 200 basis points as of September 30, 2025, and a projected one-year gap of $(570.8) million, or (5.8%) of total assets, if interest rates were to have decreased 200 basis points as of the same date.
Change in Net Interest Income. The Bank's net interest income projections reflect simulated responses to interest rates of assets and liabilities that are expected to mature or reprice over the next year. Repricing occurs as a result of cash flows that are received or paid on assets or due on liabilities which would be replaced at then current market interest rates or on adjustable-rate products that reset during the next year. The Bank's borrowings and certificate of deposit portfolios have stated maturities, and the cash flows related to fixed-rate liabilities do not generally fluctuate as a result of changes in interest rates. Cash flows from mortgage-related assets and callable agency debentures can vary significantly as a result of changes in interest rates. As interest rates decrease, borrowers have an economic incentive to lower their cost of debt by refinancing or modifying their mortgage to a lower interest rate. Similarly, agency debt issuers are more likely to exercise embedded call options and reissue securities at a lower interest rate. The Bank did not hold any callable agency debentures as of June 30, 2026 or September 30, 2025.
For each date presented in the following table, the estimated change in the Bank's net interest income is based on the indicated instantaneous, parallel and permanent change in interest rates. The change in each interest rate environment represents the difference between estimated net interest income in the zero basis point interest rate environment ("base case," assumes the forward market and product interest rates implied by the yield curve are realized) and the estimated net interest income in each alternative interest rate environment (assumes market and product interest rates have a parallel shift in rates across all maturities by the indicated change in rates). Projected cash flows for each scenario are based upon varying prepayment assumptions to model anticipated behavior changes as market rates change. Estimations of net interest income used in preparing the table below were based upon the assumptions that the total composition of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities do not change materially and that any repricing of assets or liabilities occurs at anticipated product and market rates for the alternative rate environments as of the dates presented. The estimation of net interest income does not include any projected gains or losses related to the sale of assets, or income derived from non-interest income sources, but does include the use of different prepayment assumptions in the alternative interest rate environments. It is important to consider that estimated changes in net interest income are for a cumulative four-quarter period. These do not reflect the earnings expectations of management.
Change Net Interest Income At
(in Basis Points) June 30, 2026 September 30, 2025
in Interest Rates(1) Amount ($) Change ($) Change (%) Amount ($) Change ($) Change (%)
(Dollars in thousands)
-300 bp $ 222,468 $ (12,207) (5.2 %) $ 202,033 $ (8,667) (4.1 %)
-200 bp 225,435 (9,240) (3.9) 203,014 (7,686) (3.7)
-100 bp 230,465 (4,210) (1.8) 206,913 (3,787) (1.8)
000 bp 234,675 — — 210,700 — —
+100 bp 237,014 2,339 1.0 212,822 2,122 1.0
+200 bp 238,379 3,704 1.6 213,755 3,055 1.5
+300 bp 239,225 4,550 1.9 214,061 3,361 1.6
(1)Assumes an instantaneous, parallel, and permanent change in interest rates at all maturities.
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In general, increases/(decreases) in the Bank's net interest income projections under the various interest rate scenarios presented are due to the degree in which cash flows are realized and the rates projected to be earned on loan and securities repayments, in each scenario, are greater/(less) than the rates projected to be paid on deposits and borrowings over the next 12 months. The net interest income projection was higher in the base case scenario at June 30, 2026 compared to September 30, 2025, due primarily to an increase in the average rate of the Bank's loan portfolio and a decrease in the balance of FHLB borrowings, as the Bank paid off certain maturing borrowings, made payments on its amortizing borrowings, and restructured certain fixed-rate FHLB borrowings during the current fiscal year.
As of June 30, 2026, projected net interest income increased marginally in each of the increasing rate scenarios presented and decreased marginally in each of the decreasing rate scenarios presented, compared to September 30, 2025. The marginal changes in net interest income sensitivity was largely a result of continued growth in the Bank's commercial loan portfolio. Commercial loans often have adjustable-rate features, which makes the projected amount of interest income on these assets more sensitive to changes in interest rates as they reprice on a more frequent basis. Additionally, commercial loans often have shorter average lives compared to retail mortgage loans, which results in the more frequent repricing of fixed-rate cash flows.
Change in MVPE. Changes in the estimated market values of our financial assets and liabilities drive changes in estimates of MVPE. The market value of an asset or liability reflects the present value of all the projected cash flows over its remaining life, discounted at market interest rates. Generally, as interest rates rise, the market values of financial assets and liabilities decrease. The opposite is generally true as interest rates fall. The MVPE represents the theoretical market value of capital that is calculated by netting the market value of assets, liabilities, and off-balance sheet instruments. If the market values of financial assets increase by more than the market values of financial liabilities, or if the market values of financial liabilities decrease by more than the market values of financial assets, the MVPE will increase. The market value of shorter term-to-maturity and floating/adjustable-rate financial instruments are less sensitive to changes in interest rates than are longer term-to-maturity and fixed-rate financial instruments. As a result, the market values of our certificates of deposit (which generally have relatively shorter average lives) tend to exhibit less sensitivity to changes in interest rates than do our mortgage-related assets (which generally have relatively longer average lives). The average life of our mortgage-related assets varies under different interest rate environments because borrowers have an option to prepay their mortgage loans. Therefore, as interest rates decrease, the WAL of mortgage-related assets typically decreases as well. As interest rates increase, the WAL typically increases, which also increases the market value sensitivity of these assets in higher rate environments.
The following table sets forth the estimated change in the MVPE for each date presented based on the indicated instantaneous, parallel, and permanent change in interest rates. The change in each interest rate environment represents the difference between the MVPE in the base case (assumes the forward market interest rates implied by the yield curve are realized) and the MVPE in each alternative interest rate environment (assumes market interest rates have a parallel shift in rates). Projected cash flows for each scenario are based upon varying prepayment assumptions to model anticipated customer behavior as market rates change. The estimations of the MVPE presented in the table below were based upon the assumption that the total composition of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities do not change, that any repricing of assets or liabilities occurs at current product or market rates for the alternative rate environments as of the dates presented, and that different prepayment rates were used in each alternative interest rate environment. The estimated MVPE results from the valuation of cash flows from financial assets and liabilities over the anticipated lives of each for each interest rate environment. The table below presents the effects of the changes in interest rates on our assets and liabilities as they mature, repay, or reprice, as shown by the change in the MVPE for alternative interest rates.
Change Market Value of Portfolio Equity At
(in Basis Points) June 30, 2026 September 30, 2025
in Interest Rates(1) Amount ($) Change ($) Change (%) Amount ($) Change ($) Change (%)
(Dollars in thousands)
-300 bp $ 1,467,563 $ 277,564 23.3 % $ 1,477,941 $ 315,678 27.2 %
-200 bp 1,365,536 175,537 14.8 1,362,942 200,679 17.3
-100 bp 1,274,975 84,976 7.1 1,256,515 94,252 8.1
000 bp 1,189,999 — — 1,162,263 — —
+100 bp 1,052,630 (137,369) (11.5) 1,026,750 (135,513) (11.7)
+200 bp 905,315 (284,684) (23.9) 873,123 (289,140) (24.9)
+300 bp 766,376 (423,623) (35.6) 725,096 (437,167) (37.6)
(1)Assumes an instantaneous, parallel, and permanent change in interest rates at all maturities.
The Bank's estimated MVPE increased from $1.16 billion at September 30, 2025 to $1.19 billion at June 30, 2026. Compositional changes on the balance sheet, including within the Bank's loan portfolio as it continues to redirect a significant portion of cash flows from its one- to four-family loan portfolio into its commercial loan portfolio, coupled with decreases (or tightening) in discount spreads applied to its mortgage-related assets, drove the overall marginal increase in MVPE. The increase was partially offset by a general steepening of the benchmark yield curve resulting from a decrease in interest rates along the short-end of the yield curve and
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increases in interest rates along the intermediate- and long-end of the yield curve as of June 30, 2026. The Bank generally has more interest-bearing liability cash flows tied to the short-end of the yield curve than it does interest-earning asset cash flows, and more interest-earning asset cash flows tied to the long-end of the yield curve. During times of elevated market interest rates, such as the current rate environment, the estimated market value of the Bank's fixed-rate one- to four-family loan portfolio, in the base case scenario, is reduced as the weighted average rate of the portfolio is lower than current market rates. The Bank's commercial loans have been, predominately, originated more recently than its one- to four-family loan portfolio and at more favorable, current market rates, resulting in higher market values, in the base case, compared to the Bank's one- to four-family loans. To the extent that the balance of the Bank's one- to four-family loan portfolio, with overall average rates less than current market rates, continues to decrease and the balance of its commercial loan portfolio, with average rates closer to or above current market rates, continues to increase, then the estimated market value of the Bank's overall loan portfolio is expected to continue to increase. Changes to the slope and/or relative levels of benchmark interest rates can also have a material impact on the estimated market value of the Bank's loan portfolio.
In the increasing and decreasing interest rate scenarios presented above, the resulting changes to the Bank's MVPE are primarily due to its financial assets, in aggregate, having a greater effective duration than its financial liabilities. Meaning, given a parallel change in interest rates, the resulting impact on the estimated market values of the Bank's financial assets will be greater than on its financial liabilities. The Bank's financial assets have a greater effective duration, in aggregate, than do its financial liabilities primarily because of its one- to four-family loan portfolio, which is largely comprised of long-term fixed-rate loans. The longer the expected average lives of these assets the greater the sensitivity of their market value to changes in interest rates.
The estimated amount and percentage change in the Bank's MVPE across the increasing interest rate scenarios is not entirely symmetrical with the results across like decreasing interest rate scenarios (the sensitivity of the Bank's MVPE in the decreasing rate scenarios is less than in the increasing rate scenarios). This illustrates the effects negative convexity has on the market value of the Bank's mortgage-related assets, which largely contain embedded options like the ability to prepay or refinance a mortgage without a penalty. Cash flows from these assets typically increase in decreasing rate environments because borrowers who obtained fixed-rate mortgages in a higher interest rate environment have an economic incentive to prepay or to refinance. Increased cash flows on mortgage-related assets in lower rate environments shortens the lives of those assets. Shorter average-lived assets are less sensitive to changes in interest rates, causing their market values to decrease less or increase if rates move low enough relative to the coupon rate on those mortgage-related assets in decreasing rate environments. The opposite generally occurs in increasing interest rate scenarios. Due to the majority of the Bank's one- to four-family loan portfolio currently having interest rates well below current market rates, the impact of projected prepayment speed increases resulting from a given decrease in interest rates is not as pronounced.
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The following table presents the weighted average yields/rates and WALs (in years), after applying prepayment, call assumptions, and decay rates for our interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities as of June 30, 2026. Yields presented for interest-earning assets include the amortization of fees, costs, premiums and discounts, which are considered adjustments to the yield. The interest rate presented for term borrowings is the effective rate, which includes the impact of the interest rate swap and the amortization of deferred prepayment penalties resulting from FHLB advances previously prepaid. The WAL presented for term borrowings includes the effect of the interest rate swap.
Amount Yield/Rate WAL % of Category % of Total
(Dollars in thousands)
Securities $ 783,559 5.42 % 3.4 8.5 %
Loans receivable:
Fixed-rate one- to four-family 4,717,629 3.57 6.6 57.6 % 51.3
Fixed-rate commercial 916,185 5.79 1.5 11.2 10.0
All other fixed-rate loans 28,532 7.45 7.0 0.3 0.3
Total fixed-rate loans 5,662,346 3.95 5.8 69.1 61.6
Adjustable-rate one- to four-family 874,053 4.63 4.5 10.7 9.5
Adjustable-rate commercial 1,556,790 5.92 2.7 19.0 17.0
All other adjustable-rate loans 99,550 7.24 3.5 1.2 1.1
Total adjustable-rate loans 2,530,393 5.53 3.4 30.9 27.6
Total loans receivable 8,192,739 4.44 5.0 100.0 % 89.2
FHLB stock 76,115 9.21 1.5 0.8
Cash and cash equivalents 136,098 3.17 — 1.5
Total interest-earning assets $ 9,188,511 4.54 4.8 100.0 %
Non-maturity deposits $ 3,289,361 1.29 4.7 53.2 % 42.1 %
Retail certificates of deposit 2,770,322 3.47 0.7 44.8 35.4
Commercial certificates of deposit 52,088 3.39 0.5 0.9 0.7
Public unit certificates of deposit 67,082 3.93 0.5 1.1 0.8
Total interest-bearing deposits 6,178,853 2.31 2.8 100.0 % 79.0
Term borrowings 1,638,641 3.72 1.4 21.0
Total interest-bearing liabilities $ 7,817,494 2.61 2.5 100.0 %