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Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Circle Internet Group, Inc. · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
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Interest rate risk
Our results of operations are exposed to changes in interest rates, among other macroeconomic conditions. Interest rate risk is highly sensitive to many factors, including governmental monetary and tax policies, domestic and international economic and political considerations, and other factors beyond our control. Fluctuations in interest rates impact reserve return rates, such that a decrease in interest rates reduces reserve return rates and an increase in interest rates increases reserve return rates. Reserve return rate is a contributing factor to reserve income (the other being, primarily, USDC in circulation), which in turn is a contributor to distribution and transaction costs (the others being, primarily, the amount of USDC held on and off our and Coinbase’s platforms). As such, fluctuations in interest rates may result in changes in reserve income and in turn distribution costs. However, interest rates are only one contributor to reserve income, and the other—USDC in circulation—is inherently difficult to predict given the uncertainties in end-user and customer behavior. For example, although interest rates are positively correlated with the opportunity cost of holding USDC versus other financial instruments, given the utility of USDC as a means for the exchange of value, an increase in interest rates does not necessarily result in a decrease in USDC in circulation (and vice versa). Any relationship between interest rates and USDC in circulation is complex, highly uncertain, and unproven. As a result, while we are able to predict the impact of interest rate changes on the reserve return rate, given the uncertainties in end-user and customer behavior and interests and market dynamics, we are unable to accurately predict the impact of such changes on reserve income or distribution and transaction costs.
In the following analysis, we modeled the impact of hypothetical changes in interest rates on our reserve income and distribution and transaction costs for the following twelve-month period. We assume that the amount of USDC in circulation throughout this period is equal to the amount of USDC in circulation as of June 30, 2026, due to the inherent uncertainties described above in respect of predicting or forecasting USDC in circulation; such changes in interest rates occur on July 1, 2026 and are held constant through the period and impact all reserve assets equally; and our allocation of reserve assets do not change, as we are unable to predict the market and yield reactions to interest rate changes. The table below summarizes the hypothetical impact on our operating results for the following twelve-month period based on our internal modeling, which are subject to uncertainties and limitations as discussed above (in millions):
Change in interest rates from average yield of 3.49% in June 2026 Estimated change in reserve income Estimated change in distribution and transaction costs
+200 bps $ 1,475 $ 720
+100 bps $ 737 $ 360
-100 bps $ (737) $ (360)
-200 bps $ (1,475) $ (720)
Change in interest rates from average yield of 4.26% in June 2025 Estimated change in reserve income Estimated change in distribution and transaction costs
+200 bps $ 1,235 $ 631
+100 bps $ 618 $ 315
-100 bps $ (618) $ (315)
-200 bps $ (1,235) $ (631)
Foreign currency risk
Our reporting currency is the U.S. dollar and the functional currency of our international operations is its local currency. The assets and liabilities of each of our international operations are translated into dollars at exchange rates in effect at each balance sheet date. Revenues and expenses are translated using the average exchange rate for the relevant period. Equity transactions are translated using historical exchange rates. Decreases in the relative value of the U.S. dollar to other currencies may negatively affect revenues and other operating results as expressed in dollars. Foreign currency translation adjustments are accounted for as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) within stockholders’ equity. Gains or losses due to transactions in foreign currencies are included in Other income (expense), net on our unaudited Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations. We have not engaged in hedging of foreign currency transactions to date, although we may choose to do so in the future. A 10.0% increase or decrease in current exchange rates would not have a material effect on our operating results or financial condition for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 and 2025.
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