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Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Columbia Banking System, Inc. · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
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Our assessment of market risk as of June 30, 2026 indicates there are no material changes in the qualitative disclosures from those in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025.
Interest Rate Simulation Impact on Net Interest Income
For the scenarios shown, the interest rate simulation assumes a parallel and sustained shift in market interest rates over a twelve-month period and no change in the composition or size of the balance sheet.
The scenarios are as of the dates presented:
June 30, 2026 December 31, 2025
Year 1 Year 2 Year 1 Year 2
Up 300 basis points 0.0 % 5.1 % 0.0 % 5.0 %
Up 200 basis points 0.0 % 3.4 % 0.0 % 3.4 %
Up 100 basis points 0.0 % 1.7 % 0.0 % 1.6 %
Down 100 basis points 0.2 % (1.5) % 0.3 % (1.4) %
Down 200 basis points 1.5 % (2.1) % 2.2 % (1.6) %
Down 300 basis points 4.1 % (2.0) % 5.3 % (1.5) %
An interest rate simulation model is used to estimate the sensitivity of net interest income to changes in market interest rates. The simulation model does not take into account any future actions management could undertake to mitigate the impact of interest rate changes or the impact a change in interest rates may have on our credit risk profile, loan prepayment estimates, and spread relationships, which can change regularly. Actions we could undertake include, but are not limited to, growing or contracting the balance sheet, changing the composition of the balance sheet, or changing our pricing strategies for loans or deposits.
Simulation results indicate limited exposure to interest rate risk in an increasing rate environment, with increasing net interest income in a declining interest rate environment.
The short-term interest rate environment is primarily a function of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board. The target federal funds rate, the basis for overnight funding and driver of the short end of the yield curve, remained in the 3.50-3.75% range during the second quarter of 2026. Longer maturities are influenced by the market's expectations for economic growth and inflation but can also be influenced by Federal Reserve purchases and sales and expectations of monetary policy going forward.
Based on the FOMC Members' median expectations for the federal funds target rate, the federal funds rate is projected to remain stable in the 3.50-3.75% target range for the next quarter with a projected 25 basis points increase in the fourth quarter of 2026.
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Economic Value of Equity
Another interest rate sensitivity measure we utilize is the quantification of economic value changes for all financial assets and liabilities, given an increase or decrease in market interest rates. This approach provides a longer-term view of interest rate risk, capturing all future expected cash flows.
The table below illustrates the effects of various instantaneous rate changes on the fair values of financial assets and liabilities compared to the corresponding carrying values and fair values as of the dates presented:
June 30, 2026 December 31, 2025
Up 300 basis points (7.0) % (10.1) %
Up 200 basis points (4.5) % (6.5) %
Up 100 basis points (2.1) % (3.3) %
Down 100 basis points 1.9 % 3.2 %
Down 200 basis points 2.8 % 5.3 %
Down 300 basis points 1.4 % 4.6 %
Our EVE analysis indicates a liability sensitive profile in increasing interest rate scenarios. This suggests a sudden or sustained increase in market interest rates would result in a decrease in our estimated EVE, as the decrease in the economic value of our interest-earning assets exceeds the economic value change of interest-bearing liabilities. In declining interest rate scenarios, our EVE increases. This occurs as the increase in the economic value of interest-earning assets exceeds the decline in economic value of interest-bearing liabilities, including core deposit intangibles. As of June 30, 2026, our estimated EVE (fair value of financial assets and liabilities) was above our book value of equity primarily due to the economic value of the core deposit intangibles.