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Item 11 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Orix Corp · 20-F · FY 2026 · Period ended Mar 31, 2026
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MARKET RISKS
Our primary market risk exposures are interest rate risk, exchange rate risk and risk of market prices in stocks. We enter into derivative transactions to hedge interest rate risk and exchange rate risk. Our risk management for market risk exposure and derivative transactions is described under “Item 5. Operating and Financial Review and Prospects—Risk Management.”
The following quantitative information about the market risk of our financial instruments does not include information about financial instruments to which the requirements under ASC 825 (“Financial Instruments”) do not apply, such as net investment in leases, investment in operating leases, and insurance contracts. As a result, the following information does not present all the risks of our financial instruments. We omitted the disclosure of financial instruments for trading purposes because the amount is immaterial.
Interest Rate Risk
Many of our assets and liabilities are composed of floating and fixed rate assets and liabilities. Our floating rate assets and liabilities utilize various rates to determine interest amounts receivable and payable thereunder, including TIBOR, prime rates and U.S. dollar SOFR, etc. Movements in market interest rates affect gains and losses in those assets and liabilities. Accordingly, we endeavor to reduce interest rate risk through techniques such as funding interest rate bearing assets through liabilities with similar interest rate characteristics, e.g., financing floating-rate assets with floating-rate liabilities and financing fixed-rate assets with fixed-rate liabilities.
In order to manage assets and liabilities in an appropriate risk position, we conduct various types of analysis for interest rate sensitivity including gains and losses impact analysis and fair value analysis of assets and liabilities.
The table below of interest rate sensitivity for financial instruments summarizes installment loans, investment in securities (floating and fixed rate) and short-term and long-term debt. These instruments are further classified under fixed or floating rates. For such items, the principal collection and repayment schedules and the weighted average interest rates for collected and repaid portions are disclosed. Concerning interest rate swaps, under derivative instruments, the estimated notional principal amount for each contract period and the weighted
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average of swap rates are disclosed. The average interest rates of financial instruments as of March 31, 2026 were 4.1% for installment loans, 2.6% for investment in securities (floating and fixed rate), 2.8% for short-term and long-term debt and 0.9% for deposits. As of March 31, 2026, the average payment rate of interest rate swaps was 1.6% and the average receipt rate was 1.8%. The average interest rates of financial instruments as of March 31, 2025 were: 4.0% for installment loans, 2.1% for investment in securities (floating and fixed rate), 2.7% for short-term and long-term debt and 0.5% for deposits. As of March 31, 2025, the average payment rate of interest rate swaps was 1.5% and the average receipt rate was 2.2%. As of March 31, 2026, there was no material change in the balance or in the average interest rate of financial instruments from March 31, 2025. The table below shows our interest rate risk exposure and the results of our interest rate sensitivity analysis.
INTEREST RATE SENSITIVITY
NONTRADING FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS
Expected Maturity Date Total March 31, 2026 Estimated Fair Value
Years ending March 31,
2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Thereafter
(Millions of yen)
Assets:
Installment loans (fixed rate) ¥ 207,002 ¥ 97,913 ¥ 89,660 ¥ 53,462 ¥ 60,719 ¥ 386,204 ¥ 894,960 ¥ 873,171
Average interest rate 5.7 % 8.3 % 8.2 % 8.0 % 5.8 % 3.9 % 5.6 % —
Installment loans (floating rate) ¥ 439,670 ¥ 320,434 ¥ 287,903 ¥ 215,180 ¥ 213,833 ¥ 1,785,388 ¥ 3,262,408 ¥ 3,207,888
Average interest rate 4.4 % 5.5 % 5.3 % 4.4 % 3.8 % 2.8 % 3.6 % —
Investment in securities (fixed rate) ¥ 53,697 ¥ 167,250 ¥ 70,009 ¥ 70,172 ¥ 85,370 ¥ 2,740,007 ¥ 3,186,505 ¥ 2,314,353
Average interest rate 1.1 % 10.7 % 1.9 % 2.1 % 2.4 % 1.8 % 2.3 % —
Investment in securities (floating rate) ¥ 2,194 ¥ 6,381 ¥ 8,035 ¥ 9,924 ¥ 955 ¥ 189,144 ¥ 216,633 ¥ 212,063
Average interest rate (0.2 %) 3.2 % 3.0 % 3.7 % (1.6 %) 6.5 % 6.0 % —
Liabilities:
Short-term debt ¥ 572,235 ¥ 0 ¥ 0 ¥ 0 ¥ 0 ¥ 0 ¥ 572,235 ¥ 572,235
Average interest rate 3.1 % — — — — — 3.1 % —
Deposits ¥ 1,846,727 ¥ 159,040 ¥ 75,999 ¥ 176,685 ¥ 321,836 ¥ 45,269 ¥ 2,625,556 ¥ 2,635,326
Average interest rate 0.8 % 0.7 % 0.7 % 0.9 % 1.3 % 0.7 % 0.9 % —
Long-term debt (fixed rate) ¥ 442,252 ¥ 538,324 ¥ 505,479 ¥ 351,899 ¥ 400,157 ¥ 829,558 ¥ 3,067,669 ¥ 2,992,647
Average interest rate 2.3 % 2.5 % 1.9 % 3.1 % 2.3 % 2.7 % 2.5 % —
Long-term debt (floating rate) ¥ 589,836 ¥ 428,965 ¥ 493,859 ¥ 456,431 ¥ 302,535 ¥ 626,464 ¥ 2,898,090 ¥ 2,896,388
Average interest rate 3.7 % 3.6 % 3.5 % 3.7 % 2.1 % 2.3 % 3.2 % —
NONTRADING DERIVATIVE FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS
Expected Maturity Date Total March 31, 2026 Estimated Fair Value
Years ending March 31,
2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Thereafter
(Millions of yen)
Interest rate swaps:
Notional amount (floating to fixed) ¥ 125,616 ¥ 56,743 ¥ 111,486 ¥ 27,227 ¥ 74,496 ¥ 221,474 ¥ 617,042 ¥ 24,071
Average pay rate 2.5 % 2.3 % 1.2 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 1.6 % —
Average receive rate 3.5 % 2.1 % 1.2 % 1.0 % 0.9 % 1.5 % 1.8 % —
Notional amount (fixed to floating) ¥ 0 ¥ 980 ¥ 0 ¥ 34 ¥ 0 ¥ 11 ¥ 1,025 ¥ (2 )
Average pay rate — 3.7 % — 3.7 % — 3.7 % 3.7 % —
Average receive rate — 4.3 % — 3.7 % — 3.1 % 4.3 % —
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The above table excludes purchased loans, which are exposed to interest rate risk, because it is difficult to estimate the timing and extent of collection of such loans. Purchased loans are deteriorated credit loans which we acquire at a discount and for which full collection of all contractually required payments from the debtors is unlikely. The total book value of our purchased loans as of March 31, 2026 was ¥16,214 million.
Long-term debt (fixed rate) in the table above includes the amount of ¥44,000 million of subordinated syndicated loan (hybrid loan). Out of this amount, ¥10,000 million was executed in fiscal 2022, and will mature in fiscal 2082 and may be redeemed after 5 years from the execution. ¥34,000 million was executed in fiscal 2023, and will mature in fiscal 2083 and may be redeemed after 5 years from the execution.
In addition, long-term debt (fixed rate) in the table above includes ¥160,000 million of unsecured subordinated bonds with interest deferral features and optional early redemption clauses (hybrid bonds).
This amount consists of:
- ¥40,000 million issued in fiscal 2020, maturing in fiscal 2080, with optional early redemption on or after March 2030;
- ¥21,000 million issued in fiscal 2021, maturing in fiscal 2081, with optional early redemption on or after March 2031;
- ¥60,000 million issued in fiscal 2025, maturing in fiscal 2060, with optional early redemption on or after March 2030; and
- ¥39,000 million issued in fiscal 2026, maturing in fiscal 2061, with optional early redemption on or after March 2031.
We are also exposed to interest rate risks in our life insurance businesses because revenues from life insurance related investment income fluctuate based on changes in market interest rates, while life insurance premiums and costs do not.
Exchange Rate Risk
We hold foreign currency-denominated assets and liabilities and deal in foreign currencies. It is our policy to match balances of foreign currency-denominated assets and liabilities as a means of hedging exchange rate risk. There are, however, cases where a certain part of our foreign currency-denominated investments are not hedged for such risk.
We have identified all positions that are subject to exchange rate risk, including retained earnings accumulated in foreign currencies in our overseas subsidiaries, which is translated to Japanese yen upon consolidation. ORIX shareholders’ equity is subject to exchange rate risk arising from such translations. Other positions, such as potential losses in future earnings, are calculated using several hypothetical scenarios based on 10% changes in the relevant currencies. Based on these scenarios, exchange losses in future earnings were estimated to be ¥928 million and ¥103 million as of March 31, 2025 and 2026, respectively. The largest of such losses were estimated in scenarios where the U.S. dollar appreciated 10% against the Japanese yen from the rate in effect on March 31, 2025 and 2026.
Risk of Market Prices in Stocks
We have marketable stocks that are subject to price risk arising from changes in their market prices. Our shareholders’ equity and net income bear risks due to changes in the market prices of these securities. To manage these risks of market price fluctuations, we assume a scenario of a 10% uniform downward movement in stock prices compared with stock prices as of March 31, 2025 and 2026, respectively, and under such circumstances estimate ¥12,416 million and ¥13,272 million decrease in the fair value of our equity securities as of March 31, 2025 and 2026.
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