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Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Agnc Investment Corp. · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
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Market risk is the exposure to loss resulting from changes in market factors such as interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, commodity prices and equity prices. The primary market risks that we are exposed to are interest rate, prepayment, spread, liquidity, extension and credit risks.
Interest Rate Risk
We are subject to interest rate risk in connection with the fixed income nature of our assets and the short-term, variable rate nature of our financing obligations. Our operating results depend in large part on differences between the income earned on our assets and our cost of borrowing and hedging activities. The costs associated with our borrowings are generally based on prevailing market interest rates. During a period of rising interest rates, our borrowing costs generally will increase while the yields earned on our existing portfolio of leveraged fixed-rate assets will largely remain static. This can result in a decline in our net interest spread. Changes in the level of interest rates can also affect the rate of mortgage prepayments and the value of our assets.
Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors, including fiscal and monetary policies and domestic and international economic and political considerations, as well as other factors beyond our control. Subject to maintaining our qualification as a REIT, we engage in a variety of interest rate management techniques to mitigate the influence of interest rate changes on our net interest income and fluctuations of our tangible net book value. The principal instruments that we use to hedge our interest rate risk are interest rate swaps, swaptions, U.S. Treasury securities and U.S. Treasury futures contracts. Our hedging techniques are highly complex and are partly based on assumed levels of prepayments of our assets. If prepayments are slower or faster than assumed, the maturity of our investments will also differ from our expectations, which could reduce the effectiveness of our hedging strategies and may cause losses on such transactions and adversely affect our cash flow.
The severity of potential declines in our tangible net book value due to fluctuations in interest rates would depend on our asset, liability, and hedge composition at the time, as well as the magnitude and duration of the interest rate change. Primary measures of an instrument’s price sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations are its duration and convexity. Duration measures the estimated percentage change in market value of an instrument that would be caused by a parallel change in short and long-term interest rates. The duration of our assets will vary with changes in interest rates and tends to increase when interest rates rise and decrease when interest rates fall. This “negative convexity” generally increases the interest rate exposure of our investment portfolio in excess of what is measured by duration alone.
We estimate the duration and convexity of our assets using a third-party risk management system and market data. We review the estimates for reasonableness, giving consideration to any unique characteristics of our securities, market conditions and other factors likely to impact these estimates, and based on our judgment we may make adjustments to the third-party estimates. Our estimated duration gap, which is a measure of the difference between the interest rate sensitivity of our assets and our liabilities, inclusive of interest rate hedges, was 0.7 years as of June 30, 2026, compared to 0.4 years as of December 31, 2025.
The table below quantifies the estimated changes in the fair value of our investment portfolio (including derivatives and other securities used for hedging purposes) and in our tangible net book value per common share as of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025 should interest rates go up or down by 25, 50 and 75 basis points, assuming instantaneous parallel shifts in the yield curve and including the impact of both duration and convexity. All values in the table below are measured as percentage changes from the base interest rate scenario. The base interest rate scenario assumes interest rates and prepayment projections as of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025.
To the extent that these estimates or other assumptions do not hold true, which may be more likely during periods of elevated market volatility, actual results could differ materially from our projections. Moreover, if different models were employed in the analysis, materially different projections could result. Lastly, while the table below reflects the estimated impact of interest rate changes on a static portfolio, we actively manage our portfolio, and we continuously adjust the size and composition of our asset and hedge portfolio.
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Interest Rate Sensitivity 1,2
June 30, 2026 December 31, 2025
Change in Interest Rate Estimated Change in Portfolio Market Value Estimated Change in Tangible Net Book Value Per Common Share Estimated Change in Portfolio Market Value Estimated Change in Tangible Net Book Value Per Common Share
-75 Basis Points 0.0% +0.4% -0.2% -2.4%
-50 Basis Points +0.2% +1.5% 0.0% -0.3%
-25 Basis Points +0.1% +1.3% +0.1% +0.5%
+25 Basis Points -0.2% -2.3% -0.2% -1.6%
+50 Basis Points -0.5% -5.3% -0.4% -4.3%
+75 Basis Points -0.9% -8.8% -0.8% -7.7%
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1.Derived from models that are dependent on inputs and assumptions, assumes there are no changes in mortgage spreads and assumes a static portfolio. Actual results could differ materially from these estimates.
2.Includes the effect of derivatives and other securities used for hedging purposes. Interest rates are assumed to be floored at 0% in down rate scenarios.
Prepayment Risk and Extension Risk
Prepayment risk is the risk that our assets will be repaid at a faster rate than anticipated. Interest rates and numerous other factors affect the rate of prepayments, such as housing prices, general economic conditions, loan age, size and loan-to-value ratios, and GSE buyouts of delinquent loans underlying our securities. Generally, declining mortgage rates increase the rate of prepayments, while rising rates have the opposite effect.
If our assets prepay at a faster rate than anticipated, we may be unable to reinvest the repayments at acceptable yields. If the proceeds are reinvested at lower yields than our existing assets, our net interest income would be negatively impacted. We also amortize or accrete premiums and discounts we pay or receive at purchase relative to the stated principal of our assets into interest income over their projected lives using the effective interest method. If the actual and estimated future prepayment experience differs from our prior estimates, we are required to record a current period adjustment to interest income for the impact of the cumulative difference in the effective yield.
Extension risk is the risk that our assets will be repaid at a slower rate than anticipated and generally increases when interest rates rise. In a rising or higher interest rate environment, we may be required to finance our investments at potentially higher costs without the ability to reinvest principal into higher yielding securities as a result of borrowers prepaying their mortgages at a slower pace than originally anticipated, adversely impacting our net interest spread, and thus our net interest income.
As of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, our investment securities (excluding TBAs) had a weighted average projected CPR of 8.6% and 9.6%, respectively, and a weighted average yield of 4.91% and 4.93%, respectively. The table below presents estimated weighted average projected CPRs and yields for our investment securities should interest rates go up or down instantaneously by 25, 50 and 75 basis points. Estimated yields exclude the impact of retroactive “catch-up” premium amortization adjustments for prior periods due to changes in the projected CPR assumption.
Interest Rate Sensitivity 1
June 30, 2026 December 31, 2025
Change in Interest Rate Weighted Average Projected CPR Weighted Average Asset Yield 2 Weighted Average Projected CPR Weighted Average Asset Yield 2
-75 Basis Points 14.1% 4.84% 16.6% 4.79%
-50 Basis Points 11.6% 4.87% 13.6% 4.84%
-25 Basis Points 9.8% 4.89% 11.3% 4.89%
Actual as of Period End 8.6% 4.91% 9.6% 4.93%
+25 Basis Points 7.8% 4.93% 8.3% 4.96%
+50 Basis Points 7.4% 4.94% 7.5% 4.98%
+75 Basis Points 7.1% 4.95% 7.0% 5.00%
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1.Derived from models that are dependent on inputs and assumptions and assumes a static portfolio. Actual results could differ materially from these estimates. Table excludes TBA securities.
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2.Asset yield based on historical cost basis and does not include the impact of retroactive “catch-up” premium amortization adjustments due to changes in projected CPR.
Spread Risk
Spread risk is the risk that the market spread between the yield on our assets and the yield on benchmark interest rates linked to our interest rate hedges, such as U.S. Treasury rates and interest rate swap rates, may vary. As a levered investor in mortgage-backed securities, spread risk is an inherent component of our investment strategy. Therefore, although we use hedging instruments to attempt to protect against moves in interest rates, our hedges are generally not designed to protect against spread risk, and our tangible net book value could decline if spreads widen.
Fluctuations in mortgage spreads can occur due to a variety of factors, including changes in interest rates, prepayment expectations, actual or anticipated monetary policy actions by the U.S. and foreign central banks, liquidity conditions, required rates of returns on different assets and other market supply and demand factors. The table below quantifies the estimated changes in the fair value of our assets, net of hedges, and our tangible net book value per common share as of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025 should spreads widen or tighten by 10, 25 and 50 basis points. The estimated impact of changes in spreads is in addition to our interest rate shock sensitivity included in the interest rate shock table above. The table below assumes a spread duration of 5.0 and 5.0 as of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, respectively, based on interest rates and prices as of such dates; however, our portfolio’s sensitivity to mortgage spread changes will vary with changes in interest rates and in the size and composition of our portfolio. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from our estimates.
Spread Sensitivity 1,2
June 30, 2026 December 31, 2025
Change in MBS Spread Estimated Change in Portfolio Market Value Estimated Change in Tangible Net Book Value Per Common Share Estimated Change in Portfolio Market Value Estimated Change in Tangible Net Book Value Per Common Share
-50 Basis Points +2.5% +24.3% +2.5% +24.0%
-25 Basis Points +1.3% +12.2% +1.2% +12.0%
-10 Basis Points +0.5% +4.9% +0.5% +4.8%
+10 Basis Points -0.5% -4.9% -0.5% -4.8%
+25 Basis Points -1.3% -12.2% -1.2% -12.0%
+50 Basis Points -2.5% -24.3% -2.5% -24.0%
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1.Spread sensitivity is derived from models that are dependent on inputs and assumptions, assumes there are no changes in interest rates and assumes a static portfolio. Actual results could differ materially from these estimates.
2.Includes the effect of derivatives and other securities used for hedging purposes.
Liquidity Risk
Our liquidity risk principally arises from financing long-term fixed rate assets with shorter-term variable rate borrowings. Future borrowings are dependent upon the willingness of lenders to finance our investments, lender collateral requirements and the lenders’ determination of the fair value of the securities pledged as collateral. These factors can change over time in response to interest rate movements, overall market liquidity, shifts in credit quality and changes in bank regulatory requirements. Borrowings under centrally cleared repo also depend on Bethesda Securities’ remaining compliant with regulatory and FICC membership requirements and maintaining its risk exposure within limits established by the FICC.
As of June 30, 2026, we believe that we have sufficient liquidity and capital resources available to execute our business strategy (see Liquidity and Capital Resources in this Form 10-Q for additional details). However, should the value of our collateral or the value of our derivative instruments suddenly decrease, or margin requirements increase, we may be required to post additional collateral for these arrangements, causing an adverse change in our liquidity position. Furthermore, there is no assurance that we will always be able to renew (or roll) our short-term funding liabilities. In addition, our bilateral counterparties have the option to increase our haircuts (margin requirements) on the assets we pledge against our funding liabilities, and our central clearing counterparties may adjust their risk models impacting the amount of initial margin we are required to post, thereby reducing the amount that can be borrowed against our assets even if they agree to renew or roll our
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funding liabilities. Significantly higher haircuts or initial margin requirements can reduce our ability to leverage our portfolio or may even force us to sell assets, especially if correlated with asset price declines or faster prepayment rates on our assets.
Credit Risk
Our credit sensitive investments, such as CRT and non-Agency securities, expose us to the risk of nonpayment of principal, interest or other remuneration we are contractually entitled to. We are also exposed to credit risk in the event our repurchase agreement counterparties default on their obligations to resell the underlying collateral back to us at the end of the repo term or in the event our derivative counterparties do not perform under the terms of our derivative agreements.
We accept credit exposure related to our credit sensitive assets at levels we deem prudent within the context of our overall investment strategy. We attempt to manage this risk through careful asset selection, pre-acquisition due diligence, post-acquisition performance monitoring, and the sale of assets where we identify negative credit trends. We may also manage credit risk with credit default swaps or other financial derivatives that we believe are appropriate. Additionally, we may vary the mix of our interest rate and credit sensitive assets or our duration gap to adjust our credit exposure and/or improve the return profile of our assets, such as when we believe credit performance is inversely correlated with changes in interest rates. Our credit risk related to derivative and repurchase agreement transactions is largely mitigated by limiting our counterparties to regulated financial institutions with acceptable credit ratings or to registered central clearinghouses and monitoring concentration levels with any one counterparty. We also continuously monitor and adjust the amount of collateral pledged based on changes in market value. However, our efforts to manage credit risk may be unsuccessful and we could suffer losses as a result. Excluding central clearing exchanges, as of June 30, 2026, our maximum amount at risk with any counterparty related to our repurchase agreements and derivative agreements was 1% and less than 1%, respectively, of tangible stockholders’ equity.