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Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Nmi Holdings, Inc. · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
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We own and manage a large investment portfolio of various holdings, types and maturities. NMIH’s principal source of operating cash is investment income. The assets within the investment portfolio are exposed to the same factors that affect overall financial market performance.
We manage market risk via a defined investment policy implemented by our treasury function with oversight from our Board's Risk Committee. Important drivers of our market risk exposure monitored and managed by us include but are not limited to:
•Changes to the level of interest rates. Increasing interest rates may reduce the value of certain fixed-rate bonds held in the investment portfolio. Higher rates may cause variable rate assets to generate additional income. Decreasing rates will have the reverse impact. Significant changes in interest rates can also affect persistency and claim rates of our insurance portfolio, and as a result we may determine that our investment portfolio needs to be restructured to better align it with future liabilities and claim payments. Such restructuring may cause investments to be liquidated when market conditions are adverse. Additionally, the changes in SOFR based interest rates affect the interest expense related to the Company's debt.
•Changes to the term structure of interest rates. Rising or falling rates typically change by different amounts along the yield curve. These changes may have unforeseen impacts on the value of certain assets.
•Market volatility/changes in the real or perceived credit quality of investments. Deterioration in the quality of investments, identified through changes to our own or third-party (e.g., rating agency or investment advisors) assessments, will reduce the value and potentially the liquidity of investments.
•Concentration risk. If the investment portfolio is highly concentrated in one asset, or in multiple assets whose values are highly correlated, the value of the total portfolio may be greatly affected by the change in value of just one asset or a group of highly correlated assets.
•Prepayment risk. Bonds may have call provisions that permit debtors to repay prior to maturity when it is to their advantage. This typically occurs when rates fall below the interest rate of the debt.
The carrying value of our investment portfolio as of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025 was $3.3 billion and $3.1 billion, respectively, of which 100% was invested in fixed maturity securities. The primary market risk to our investment portfolio is interest rate risk associated with investments in fixed maturity securities. We mitigate the market risk associated with our fixed maturity securities portfolio by matching the duration of our fixed maturity securities with the expected duration of the liabilities that those securities are intended to support.
As of June 30, 2026, the duration of our fixed income portfolio, including cash and cash equivalents, was 3.56 years, which means that an instantaneous parallel shift (movement up or down) in the yield curve of 100 basis points would result in a change of 3.56% in fair value of our fixed income portfolio. Excluding cash, our fixed income portfolio duration was 3.57 years, which means that an instantaneous parallel shift (movement up or down) in the yield curve of 100 basis points would result in a change of 3.57% in fair value of our fixed income portfolio.
We are also subject to market risk related to the 2024 Revolving Credit Facility and the ILN Transaction. As discussed in Item 1, “Financial Statements - Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements - Note 4, Debt” the 2024 Revolving Credit Facility bears interest at a variable rate and, as a result, increases in market interest rates would generally result in increased interest expense on any outstanding drawn balance.
The risk premium amount under the ILN Transaction is calculated by multiplying the outstanding reinsurance coverage amount at the beginning of any payment period by a coupon rate, which is the sum of one-month SOFR, as applicable, and a risk margin, and then subtracting actual investment income earned on the trust balance during that payment period. An increase in one-month SOFR, as applicable, would generally increase the risk premium payments, while an increase to money market rates, which directly affect investment income earned on the trust balance, would generally decrease them. Although we expect the two rates to move in tandem, to the extent they do not, it could increase or decrease the risk premium payments that otherwise would be due.
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