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Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Rithm Capital Corp. · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
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Market risk is the exposure to loss resulting from changes in interest rates, credit spreads, foreign currency exchange rates, commodity prices, equity prices and other market-based risks. The primary market risks that we are exposed to are interest rate risk, mortgage basis spread risk, prepayment rate risk and credit risk. These risks are highly sensitive to many factors, including governmental monetary and tax policies, domestic and international economic and political considerations and other factors beyond our control. All of our market risk sensitive assets, liabilities and derivative positions (other than TBAs) are for non-trading purposes only. For a further discussion of how market risk may affect our financial position or results of operations, please refer to “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Critical Accounting Policies and Use of Estimates.”
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Interest Rate Risk
Changes in interest rates, including changes in expected interest rates or “yield curves,” affect our investments in various ways, the most significant of which are discussed below.
Fair Value Impact
Changes in the level of interest rates also affect the yields required by the marketplace on interest rate instruments. Increasing interest rates would decrease the value of the fixed-rate assets we hold at the time because higher required yields result in lower prices on existing fixed-rate assets in order to adjust their yield upward to meet the market.
Changes in unrealized gains or losses resulting from changes in market interest rates do not directly affect our cash flows, or our ability to pay a dividend, to the extent the related assets are expected to be held and continue to perform as expected, as their fair value is not relevant to their underlying cash flows. Changes in unrealized gains or losses would impact our ability to realize gains on existing investments if they were sold. Furthermore, with respect to changes in unrealized gains or losses on investments which are carried at fair value, changes in unrealized gains or losses would impact our net book value and, in certain cases, our net income.
Changes in interest rates can also have ancillary impacts on our investments. Generally, in a declining interest rate environment, residential mortgage loan prepayment rates increase which in turn would cause the value of MSRs, MSR financing receivables, Excess MSRs and the rights to the base fee components of MSRs to decrease, because the duration of the cash flows we are entitled to receive becomes shortened, and the value of loans and non-Agency securities to increase, because we generally acquired these investments at a discount whose recovery would be accelerated. With respect to a significant portion of our MSRs and Excess MSRs, we have recapture agreements, as described in Note 5 to our consolidated financial statements. These recapture agreements help to protect these investments from the impact of increasing prepayment rates. In addition, to the extent that the loans underlying our MSRs, MSR financing receivables, Excess MSRs and the rights to the base fee components of MSRs are well-seasoned with credit-impaired borrowers who may have limited refinancing options, we believe the impact of interest rates on prepayments would be reduced. Conversely, in an increasing interest rate environment, prepayment rates decrease which in turn would cause the value of MSRs, MSR financing receivables, Excess MSRs and the rights to the base fee components of MSRs to increase and the value of loans and non-Agency securities to decrease. To the extent we do not hedge against changes in interest rates, our balance sheet, results of operations and cash flows would be susceptible to significant volatility due to changes in the fair value of, or cash flows from, our investments as interest rates change. However, rising interest rates could result from more robust market conditions, which could reduce the credit risk associated with our investments. The effects of such a decrease in values on our financial position, results of operations and liquidity are discussed below under “—Prepayment Rate Exposure.”
Changes in the value of our assets could affect our ability to borrow and access capital. Also, if the value of our assets subject to short-term financing were to decline, it could cause us to fund margin, or repay debt, and affect our ability to refinance such assets upon the maturity of the related financings, adversely impacting our rate of return on such investments.
We are subject to margin calls on our secured financing agreements. Furthermore, we may, from time to time, be a party to derivative agreements or financing arrangements that are subject to margin calls, or mandatory repayment, based on the value of such instruments. We seek to maintain adequate cash reserves and other sources of available liquidity to meet any margin calls, or required repayments, resulting from decreases in value related to a reasonably possible (in our opinion) change in interest rates but there can be no assurance that our cash reserves will be sufficient.
In addition, changes in interest rates may impact our ability to exercise our call rights and to realize or maximize potential profits from them. A significant portion of the residential mortgage loans underlying our call rights bear fixed-rates and may decline in value during a period of rising market interest rates. Furthermore, rising rates could cause prepayment rates on these loans to decline, which would delay our ability to exercise our call rights. These impacts could be at least partially offset by potential declines in the value of non-Agency securities related to the call rights, which could then be acquired more cheaply, and in credit spreads, which could offset the impact of rising market interest rates on the value of fixed-rate loans to some degree. Conversely, declining interest rates could increase the value of our call rights by increasing the value of the underlying loans.
We believe our consumer loan investments generally have limited interest rate sensitivity given that our portfolio is mostly composed of seasoned loans with credit-impaired borrowers who are paying fixed-rates, who we believe are relatively unlikely to change their prepayment patterns based on changes in interest rates.
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Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors, including fiscal and monetary policies and domestic and international economic and political considerations, as well as other factors beyond our control.
The interest rates on our secured financing agreements, as well as adjustable-rate mortgage loans in our securitizations, are generally based on SOFR, which is subject to national, international and other regulatory guidance for reform.
The table below provides comparative estimated changes in our book value based on a parallel shift in the yield curve (assuming an unchanged mortgage basis), including changes in our book value resulting from potential related changes in discount rates:
Estimated Change in Book Value (in $ millions)(A)
Interest Rate Change (bps) June 30, 2026 December 31, 2025
+50bps +197.4 -41.2
+25bps +115.8 +7.7
-25bps -150.0 -64.5
-50bps -334.3 -185.6
(A)Amounts shown are pre-tax.
Mortgage Basis Spread Risk
Mortgage basis measures the spread between the yield on current coupon MBS and benchmark rates including treasuries and swaps. The level of mortgage basis is driven by demand and supply of mortgage-backed instruments relative to other rate-sensitive assets. Changes in the mortgage basis have an impact on prepayment rates driven by the ability of borrowers underlying our portfolio to refinance. A lower mortgage basis would imply a lower mortgage rate which would increase prepayment speeds due to higher refinance activity and, therefore, lower fair value of our mortgage portfolio. The mortgage basis is also correlated with other spread products such as corporate credit.
The table below provides comparative estimated changes in our book value based on changes in mortgage basis:
Estimated Change in Book Value (in $ millions)(A)
Mortgage Basis Change (bps) June 30, 2026 December 31, 2025
+20bps +103.9 +66.8
+10bps +51.9 +33.4
-10bps -51.9 -33.4
-20bps -103.9 -66.8
(A)Amounts shown are pre-tax.
Prepayment Rate Exposure
Prepayment rates significantly affect the value of MSRs and MSR financing receivables, Excess MSRs, the base fee component of MSRs (which we own as part of our servicer advance investments), non-Agency securities and loans, including consumer loans. Prepayment rate is the measurement of how quickly borrowers pay down the UPB of their loans or how quickly loans are otherwise brought current, modified, liquidated or charged off. The price we pay to acquire certain investments will be based on, among other things, our projection of the cash flows from the related pool of loans. Our expectation of prepayment rates is a significant assumption underlying those cash flow projections. If the fair value of MSRs and MSR financing receivables, Excess MSRs or the base fee component of MSRs decreases, we would be required to record a non-cash charge, which would have a negative impact on our financial results. Furthermore, a significant increase in prepayment rates could materially reduce the ultimate cash flows we receive from MSRs and MSR financing receivables, Excess MSRs or our right to the base fee component of MSRs, and we could ultimately receive substantially less than what we paid for such assets. Conversely, a significant decrease in prepayment rates with respect to our loans or RMBS could delay our expected cash flows and reduce the yield on these investments.
We seek to reduce our exposure to prepayment through the structuring of our investments. For example, in our MSR and Excess MSR investments, we seek to enter into “recapture agreements” whereby our MSR or Excess MSR is retained if the applicable servicer or subservicer originates a new loan the proceeds of which are used to repay a loan underlying an MSR or Excess MSR in our portfolio. We seek to enter into such recapture agreements in order to protect our returns in the event of a rise in voluntary prepayment rates.
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Credit Risk
We are subject to varying degrees of credit risk in connection with our assets. Credit risk refers to the ability of each individual borrower underlying our MSRs, MSR financing receivables, Excess MSRs, servicer advance investments, securities and loans to make required interest and principal payments on the scheduled due dates. If delinquencies increase, then the amount of servicer advances we are required to make will also increase, as would our financing cost thereof. We may also invest in loans and non-Agency securities which represent “first loss” pieces; in other words, they do not benefit from credit support although we believe they predominantly benefit from underlying collateral value in excess of their carrying amounts. We do not expect to encounter credit risk in our Agency RMBS, and we do anticipate credit risk related to non-Agency securities, residential mortgage loans and consumer loans.
We seek to reduce credit risk through prudent asset selection, actively monitoring our asset portfolio and the underlying credit quality of our holdings and, where appropriate and achievable, repositioning our investments to upgrade their credit quality. Our pre-acquisition due diligence and processes for monitoring performance include the evaluation of, among other things, credit and risk ratings, principal subordination, prepayment rates, delinquency and default rates, and vintage of collateral.
For our MSRs, MSR financing receivables and Excess MSRs on Agency collateral and our Agency RMBS, delinquency and default rates have an effect similar to prepayment rates. Our Excess MSRs on non-Agency portfolios are not directly affected by delinquency rates, because the servicer continues to advance principal and interest until a default occurs on the applicable loan, so delinquencies decrease prepayments therefore having a positive impact on fair value, while increased defaults have an effect similar to increased prepayments. For our non-Agency securities and loans, higher default rates can lead to greater loss of principal. For our call rights, higher delinquencies and defaults could reduce the value of the underlying loans, therefore reducing or eliminating the related potential profit.
Market factors that could influence the degree of the impact of credit risk on our investments include (i) unemployment levels and the general economy, which impact borrowers’ ability to make payments on their loans, (ii) home prices, which impact the value of collateral underlying residential mortgage loans, (iii) the availability of credit, which impacts borrowers’ ability to refinance and (iv) other factors, all of which are beyond our control.
Liquidity Risk
The assets that comprise our asset portfolio are generally not publicly traded. A portion of these assets may be subject to legal and other restrictions on resale or otherwise be less liquid than publicly-traded securities. The illiquidity of our assets may make it difficult for us to sell such assets if the need or desire arises, including in response to changes in economic and other conditions. See Note 18 to our consolidated financial statements for a sensitivity analysis for MSRs and MSR financing receivables.
Real Estate Risk
Residential and commercial property values are subject to volatility and may be affected adversely by a number of factors, including, but not limited to, national, regional and local economic conditions (which may be adversely affected by industry slowdowns, public health crises and other factors); local real estate conditions (such as an oversupply of housing and commercial and residential vacancies and corresponding impacts on market rents); construction quality, age and design; demographic factors; and retroactive changes to building or similar codes. Increases in interest rates will result in lower refinancing volume and home price increases will slow. Decreases in property values may cause us to suffer losses.