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Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
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Our quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk are included in Item 7A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 and, except as set forth below, have not materially changed since that report was filed.
Commodity Price Risk
The price we receive for our oil and natural gas production heavily influences our revenue, profitability, access to capital and future rate of growth. Oil and natural gas are commodities and, therefore, their prices are subject to wide fluctuations in response to relatively minor changes in supply and demand and other factors. Historically, the markets for oil and natural gas have been volatile, and we believe these markets will likely continue to be volatile in the future. The prices we receive for our production depend on numerous factors beyond our control. Our revenue generally would have increased or decreased along with any increases or decreases in oil or natural gas prices, but the exact impact on our income is indeterminable given the variety of expenses associated with producing and selling oil that also increase and decrease along with oil prices.
We enter into derivative contracts to achieve a more predictable cash flow by reducing our exposure to commodity price volatility. All derivative positions are carried at their fair value on the condensed consolidated balance sheets and are marked-to-market at the end of each period. Any realized gains and losses on settled derivatives, as well as mark-to-market gains or losses, are aggregated and recorded to gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net on the condensed consolidated statements of operations rather than as a component of other comprehensive income or other income (expense).
We generally use derivatives to economically hedge a significant, but varying portion of our anticipated future production. Any payments due to counterparties under our derivative contracts are funded by proceeds received from the sale of our production. Production receipts, however, lag payments to the counterparties. Any interim cash needs are funded by cash from operations or borrowings under our Revolving Credit Facility.
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The following table summarizes our open crude oil derivative contracts as of June 30, 2026, by fiscal quarter.
Crude Oil Contracts
Swaps(1) Collars
Contract Period Volume (Bbls) Weighted Average Price ($/Bbl) Volume Ceiling (Bbls) Volume Floor (Bbls) Volume Sub-Floor (Bbls) Weighted Average Ceiling Price ($/Bbl) Weighted Average Floor Price ($/Bbl) Weighted Average Sub-Floor Price ($/Bbl)
2026(1)
Q3 1,678,567 $ 67.55 2,454,587 1,765,163 207,000 $ 71.44 $ 62.34 $ 47.22
Q4 1,494,567 67.62 2,454,587 1,765,163 207,000 71.44 62.34 47.22
2027(1)
Q1 697,500 $ 69.47 607,500 607,500 225,000 $ 73.76 $ 61.14 $ 45.00
Q2 705,250 69.47 614,250 614,250 227,500 73.76 77.81 45.00
Q3 506,000 70.50 353,500 353,500 38,750 75.31 67.97 45.00
Q4 506,000 70.50 276,000 276,000 — 76.37 64.03 —
2028(1)
Q1 45,500 $ 70.04 — — — $ — $ — $ —
Q2 45,500 70.04 — — — — — —
Q3 46,000 70.04 — — — — — —
Q4 46,000 70.04 — — — — — —
2029(1)
Q1 45,000 $ 70.04 — — — $ — $ — $ —
Q2 45,500 70.04 — — — — — —
Q3 46,000 70.04 — — — — — —
Q4 46,000 70.04 — — — — — —
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(1)This table does not include volumes subject to swaptions and call options, which are crude oil derivative contracts we have entered into which may increase our swapped volumes at the option of our counterparties. This table also does not include basis swaps. See Note 10 to our condensed consolidated financial statements for further details regarding our commodity derivatives, including the swaptions and call options that are not included in the foregoing table.
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The following table summarizes our open natural gas derivative contracts as of June 30, 2026, by fiscal quarter.
Natural Gas Contracts
Swaps(1) Collars
Contract Period Volume (MMBTU) Weighted Average Price ($/MMBTU) Volume Ceiling (MMBTU) Volume Floor (MMBTU) Weighted Average Ceiling Price ($/MMBTU) Weighted Average Floor Price ($/MMBTU)
2026(1)
Q3 10,735,000 $ 4.02 13,844,706 13,844,706 $ 4.89 $ 3.45
Q4 12,425,000 4.16 13,809,642 13,809,642 5.06 3.47
2027(1)
Q1 8,015,000 $ 4.01 6,965,000 6,965,000 $ 4.79 $ 3.46
Q2 8,280,000 4.00 5,980,000 5,980,000 4.43 3.45
Q3 8,280,000 4.00 5,980,000 5,980,000 4.43 3.45
Q4 6,570,000 3.96 4,275,000 4,275,000 4.41 3.45
2028(1)
Q1 2,555,000 $ 3.83 900,000 900,000 $ 4.17 $ 3.50
Q2 1,840,000 3.83 920,000 920,000 4.17 3.50
Q3 1,840,000 3.83 920,000 920,000 4.17 3.50
Q4 1,530,000 3.85 920,000 920,000 4.07 3.50
2029(1)
Q1 — $ — 890,000 890,000 $ 3.88 $ 3.50
Q2 — — 920,000 920,000 3.88 3.50
Q3 — — 920,000 920,000 3.88 3.50
Q4 — — 610,000 610,000 3.88 3.50
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(1)This table does not include volumes subject to swaptions and call options, which are natural gas derivative contracts we have entered into which may increase our swapped volumes at the option of our counterparties. This table also does not include basis swaps. See Note 10 to our condensed consolidated financial statements for further details regarding our commodity derivatives, including the call options and basis swaps that are not included in the foregoing table.
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The following table summarizes our open NGL derivative contracts as of June 30, 2026, by fiscal quarter.
NGL Contracts
Swaps
Contract Period Volume (BBL) Weighted Average Price ($/BBL)
2026:
Q3 96,600 $ 33.03
Q4 80,500 33.32
2027:
Q1 65,250 $ 32.30
Q2 59,150 30.73
Q3 57,500 30.69
Q4 52,900 30.87
Interest Rate Risk
Our long-term debt as of June 30, 2026 was comprised of borrowings that contain fixed and floating interest rates. Our Convertible Notes due 2029, Senior Notes due 2031, and Senior Notes due 2033 bear cash interest at fixed rates. Our Revolving Credit Facility interest rate is a floating rate option that is designated by us within the parameters established by the underlying agreement (see Note 4 to our condensed consolidated financial statements).
From time to time, the Company may use interest rate swaps to effectively convert a portion of its variable rate indebtedness to fixed rate indebtedness. The following table summarizes our open interest rate derivative contracts as of June 30, 2026.
Fixed Rate Swap Agreements (in thousands)
Swaps
Contract Period Notional Amount Fixed Rate Floating Benchmark
October 1, 2024 - October 1, 2026 $ 25,000 3.423 % USD-SOFR CME
May 1, 2025 - May 1, 2027 $ 50,000 3.423 % USD-SOFR CME
September 19, 2025 - October 1, 2027 $ 50,000 3.300 % USD-SOFR CME
October 20, 2025 - November 1, 2027 $ 100,000 3.187 % USD-SOFR CME
December 10, 2025 - December 1, 2027 $ 50,000 3.393 % USD-SOFR CME
December 10, 2025 - December 1, 2028 $ 50,000 3.392 % USD-SOFR CME
Changes in interest rates can impact results of operations and cash flows. A 1% increase in short-term interest rates on our floating-rate debt outstanding at June 30, 2026 would cost us approximately $5.0 million in additional annual interest expense.
Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk
Our cash activities relating to our international operations are based on the U.S. dollar equivalent of cash flows measured in foreign currencies. Our Canadian production is sold under Canadian dollar contracts, while the majority of costs incurred are paid in Canadian dollars. Transactions denominated in Canadian dollars are converted to U.S. dollar equivalents based on applicable exchange rates during the period. We monitor foreign currency exchange rates of countries in which we are conducting business and may, from time to time, implement measures to protect against foreign currency exchange rate risk.
Foreign currency gains and losses also arise when monetary assets and liabilities denominated in foreign currencies are remeasured at the end of each month. Foreign currency gains and losses from remeasurements are included in current earnings.
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