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Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Pennymac Mortgage Investment Trust · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
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Market risk is the exposure to loss resulting from changes in interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, commodity prices, equity prices, real estate values and other market-based risks. The primary market risks that we are exposed to are real estate risk, credit risk, interest rate risk, prepayment risk, inflation risk and market value risk. Our primary trading asset is our inventory of loans held for sale. We believe that such assets’ fair values respond primarily to changes in the market interest rates for comparable recently-originated loans. Our other market-risk assets are a substantial portion of our investments and are primarily comprised of MSRs, CRT arrangements and MBS, including those consolidated on our balance sheet as loans held for investment and asset-backed financing. We believe that the fair values of MSRs and MBS also respond primarily to changes in the market interest rates for comparable loans or yields on MBS. Changes in interest rates are reflected in the prepayment speeds underlying these investments and in the pricing spread (an element of the discount rate) used in their valuation. We believe that the primary market risks to the fair values of our investment in CRT arrangements are changes in market credit spreads and the fair value of the real estate securing the loans underlying such arrangements.
The following sensitivity analyses are limited in that they were performed at a particular point in time; only contemplate the movements in the indicated variables; do not incorporate changes to other variables; are subject to the accuracy of various models and assumptions used; and do not incorporate other factors that would affect our overall financial performance in such scenarios, including operational adjustments made by management to account for changing circumstances. For these reasons, the following estimates should not be viewed as earnings forecasts.
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Mortgage-backed securities at fair value
The following table summarizes the estimated change in fair value of our mortgage-backed securities as of June 30, 2026, given several hypothetical (instantaneous) changes in interest rates and parallel shifts in the yield curve:
Interest rate shift in basis points -200 -75 -50 50 75 200
(in thousands)
Change in fair value $ 207,055 $ 137,137 $ 96,666 $ (108,149 ) $ (165,433 ) $ (476,679 )
Mortgage Servicing Rights
The following tables summarize the estimated change in fair value of MSRs as of June 30, 2026, given several shifts in pricing spread, prepayment speeds and annual per-loan cost of servicing:
Change in fair value attributable to shift in: -20% -10% -5% +5% +10% +20%
(in thousands)
Option-adjusted spread $ 94,652 $ 54,442 $ 30,308 $ (33,357 ) $ (67,581 ) $ (134,995 )
Prepayment speed $ 142,648 $ 78,797 $ 41,490 $ (42,931 ) $ (85,475 ) $ (168,902 )
Annual per-loan cost of servicing $ 57,877 $ 28,939 $ 14,469 $ (14,469 ) $ (28,939 ) $ (57,877 )
CRT Arrangements
Following is a summary of the effect on fair value of various changes to the pricing spread input used to estimate the fair value of our CRT arrangements given several shifts in pricing spread:
Pricing spread shift in basis points -100 -50 -25 25 50 100
(in thousands)
Change in fair value $ 29,894 $ 14,752 $ 7,330 $ (7,236 ) $ (14,379 ) $ (28,399 )
Following is a summary of the effect on fair value of various instantaneous changes in home values from those used to estimate the fair value of our CRT arrangements given several shifts:
Property value shift in % -15% -10% -5% 5% 10% 15%
(in thousands)
Change in fair value $ (8,410 ) $ (5,104 ) $ (2,331 ) $ 1,984 $ 3,672 $ 5,103