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Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Pennymac Financial Services, Inc. · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
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Market risk is the exposure to loss resulting from changes in interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, commodity prices, equity prices, real estate values and other market-based risks. The primary market risks that we are exposed to are fair value risk, interest rate risk and prepayment risk.
Fair Value Risk
Our IRLCs, mortgage loans held for sale, principal-only stripped MBS, MSRs and MSLs are reported at their fair values. The fair value of these assets fluctuates primarily due to changes in interest rates. The fair value risk we face is primarily attributable to interest rate risk and prepayment risk.
Interest Rate Risk
Interest rate risk is highly sensitive to many factors, including governmental monetary and tax policies, domestic and international economic and political considerations, and other factors beyond our control. Changes in interest rates affect both the fair value of, and interest income we earn from, our mortgage-related investments and our derivative financial instruments. This effect is most pronounced with fixed-rate mortgage assets.
In general, rising interest rates negatively affect the fair value of our IRLCs, inventory of mortgage loans held for sale, and principal-only stripped MBS and positively affect the fair value of our MSRs. Changes in interest rates significantly influence the prepayment speeds of the loans underlying our investments in MSRs, which can have a significant effect on their fair values. Changes in interest rate are most prominently reflected in the prepayment speeds of the loans underlying our investments in MSRs and the discount rate used in their valuation.
Our operating results will depend, in part, on differences between the income from our investments and our financing costs. Presently most of our secured debt financing is based on a floating rate of interest calculated on a fixed spread over the relevant index, as determined by the particular financing arrangement.
Prepayment Risk
To the extent that the actual prepayment rate on the mortgage loans underlying our MSRs differs from what we projected when we initially recognized these assets and liabilities when we measure fair value as of the end of each reporting period, the carrying value of these assets and liabilities will be affected. In general, a decrease in the principal balances of the mortgage loans underlying our MSRs or an increase in prepayment expectations will decrease our estimates of the fair value of the MSRs, thereby reducing net servicing income, partially offset by the beneficial effect on net servicing income of a corresponding reduction in the fair value of our MSLs and an increase in the fair value of our principal-only stripped MBS.
Risk Management Activities
We engage in risk management activities primarily in an effort to mitigate the effect of changes in interest rates on the fair value of our assets. To manage this price risk, we use derivative financial instruments acquired with the intention of moderating the risk that changes in market interest rates will result in unfavorable changes in the fair value of our assets, primarily prepayment exposure on our MSR investments as well as IRLCs and our inventory of loans held for sale. Our objective is to minimize our hedging expense and maximize our loss coverage based on a given hedge expense target. We do not use derivative financial instruments other than IRLCs for purposes other than in support of our risk management activities.
Our strategies are reviewed daily within a disciplined risk management framework. We use a variety of interest rate and spread shifts and scenarios and define target limits for market value and liquidity loss in those scenarios. With respect to our IRLCs and inventory of loans held for sale, we use MBS forward sale contracts to lock in the price at which we will sell the mortgage loans or resulting MBS, and further use MBS put options to mitigate the risk of our IRLCs not closing at the rate we expect. With respect to our MSRs, we seek to mitigate mortgage-based loss exposure utilizing MBS forward purchase and sale contracts and principal-only stripped MBS, address exposures to smaller interest rate shifts with Treasury and interest rate swap futures, and use options and swaptions to achieve target coverage levels for larger interest rate shocks.
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Fair Value Sensitivities
The following sensitivity analyses are limited in that they were performed at a particular point in time; only contemplate the movements in the indicated variables; do not incorporate changes to other variables; are subject to the accuracy of various models and inputs used; and do not incorporate other factors that would affect our overall financial performance in such scenarios, including operational adjustments made by management to account for changing circumstances. For these reasons, the following estimates should not be viewed as earnings forecasts.
Mortgage Servicing Rights
The following tables summarize the estimated change in fair value of MSRs as of June 30, 2026, given several shifts in prepayment speeds, option adjusted spreads and annual per loan cost of servicing:
Change in fair value attributable to shift in: -20% -10% -5% +5% +10% +20%
(in thousands)
Prepayment speed $ 443,608 $ 231,496 $ 117,709 $ (118,629) $ (237,122) $ (474,686)
Option adjusted spread $ 270,334 $ 145,299 $ 74,158 $ (75,196) $ (150,795) $ (305,110)
Annual per-loan cost of servicing $ 225,291 $ 112,645 $ 56,323 $ (56,323) $ (112,645) $ (225,291)