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Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Phillips 66 · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
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Our interest rate risk at June 30, 2026, did not differ materially from the risks disclosed under Item 7A of our 2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K. See Note 9—Debt for information related to debt.
We are exposed to market risks produced by changes in commodity prices, such as crude oil, refined petroleum products, NGL, natural gas, renewable feedstocks and renewable fuels, and electric power. We use financial and commodity-based derivative contracts as economic hedges to manage exposures to fluctuations in commodity prices. These derivatives are marked-to-market at the end of the period and reflected in current period earnings; however, the associated physical positions are valued on the balance sheet using last-in, first-out (LIFO) accounting rules. This could create a timing difference in earnings recognition that is expected to unwind in future periods.
Our use of derivative instruments is governed by an “Authority Limitations” document approved by our Board of Directors. This document prohibits the use of highly leveraged derivatives or derivative instruments without sufficient market liquidity for comparable valuations, and establishes Value at Risk (VaR) limits. Compliance with these limits is monitored daily by our global risk group. We use a VaR model to estimate the loss in fair value that could potentially result on a single day from the effect of adverse changes in market conditions on the derivative commodity instruments held or issued.
As a result of the elevated commodity price volatility driven by ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the VaR using Monte Carlo simulation with a 95% confidence level and a one-day holding period for derivative commodity instruments issued or held at June 30, 2026, increased compared with those instruments held at December 31, 2025. A hypothetical 10% increase in the market prices of commodities for our outstanding financial commodity derivative instruments as of June 30, 2026, would reduce the income before income taxes by approximately $350 million, and a hypothetical 10% decrease in the market prices of commodities would increase the income before income taxes by approximately $350 million. We remain at risk for possible changes in the market value of commodity derivative instruments; however, such risk could be mitigated by price changes in the underlying physical commodity. Effects of these offsets are not reflected in the above sensitivity analysis. We evaluate our portfolio of commodity derivative instruments on an ongoing basis and add or revise strategies in anticipation of and reaction to changes in market conditions and in risk profiles. Changes to our portfolio after June 30, 2026, would cause future income before income tax impacts to differ from those presented above.
For additional information about our use of derivative instruments, see Note 13—Derivatives and Financial Instruments, in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.