← Back to PFS filing summaryOriginal filing text · Part I
Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Provident Financial Services, Inc. · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
View complete filing on SEC EDGAR ↗This is the extracted source text from the SEC filing. Formatting may differ from the original document.
Qualitative Analysis. Interest rate risk is the exposure of a bank’s current and future earnings and capital arising from adverse movements in interest rates. The guidelines of the Company’s interest rate risk policy seek to limit the exposure to changes in interest rates that affect the underlying economic value of assets and liabilities, earnings and capital. To minimize interest rate risk, the Company generally sells all 20- and 30-year fixed-rate residential mortgage loans at origination. The Company retains residential fixed rate mortgages with terms of 15 years or less and biweekly payment residential mortgages with a term of 30 years or less. Commercial real estate loans generally have interest rates that reset in five years, and other commercial loans such as construction loans and commercial lines of credit reset with changes in the Prime Rate, the Federal Funds Rate or SOFR. Investment securities purchases generally have maturities of five years or less, and mortgage-backed securities have weighted average lives between three and five years.
The Asset/Liability Committee meets at least monthly, or as needed, to review the impact of interest rate changes on net interest income, net interest margin, net income and the economic value of equity. The Asset/Liability Committee reviews a variety of strategies that project changes in asset or liability mix and the impact of those changes on projected net interest income and net income.
The Company’s strategy for liabilities has been to maintain a stable core-funding base by focusing on core deposit account acquisition and increasing products and services per household. The Company’s ability to retain maturing time deposit accounts is the result of its strategy to remain competitively priced within its marketplace. The Company’s pricing strategy
59
may vary depending upon current funding needs and the ability of the Company to fund operations through alternative sources, primarily by accessing short-term lines of credit with FHLBNY during periods of pricing dislocation.
Quantitative Analysis. Current and future sensitivity to changes in interest rates are measured through the use of balance sheet and income simulation models. The analysis captures changes in net interest income using flat rates as a base, a most likely rate forecast and rising and declining interest rate forecasts. Changes in net interest income and net income for the forecast period, generally twelve to twenty-four months, are measured and compared to policy limits for acceptable change. The Company periodically reviews historical deposit re-pricing activity and makes modifications to certain assumptions used in its income simulation model regarding the interest rate sensitivity of deposits without maturity dates. These modifications are made to more closely reflect the most likely results under the various interest rate change scenarios. Since it is inherently difficult to predict the sensitivity of interest-bearing deposits to changes in interest rates, the changes in net interest income due to changes in interest rates cannot be precisely predicted. There are a variety of reasons that may cause actual results to vary considerably from the predictions presented below which include, but are not limited to, the timing, magnitude, and frequency of changes in interest rates, interest rate spreads, prepayments, and actions taken in response to such changes.
Specific assumptions used in the simulation model include:
•Parallel yield curve shifts for market rates;
•Current asset and liability spreads to market interest rates are fixed;
•Traditional savings and interest-bearing demand accounts move at 10% of the rate ramp in either direction;
•Retail Money Market and Business Money Market accounts move at 25% and 75% of the rate ramp in either direction respectively, subject to certain interest rate floors; and
•Higher-balance demand deposit tiers and promotional demand accounts move at 50% to 75% of the rate ramp in either direction, subject to certain interest rate floors.
The following table sets forth the results of a twelve-month net interest income projection model as of June 30, 2026 (dollars in thousands):
Change in interest rates (basis points) - Rate Ramp Net Interest Income
Dollar Amount Dollar Change Percent Change
-200 853,868 14,503 1.7
-100 845,080 5,715 0.7
Static 839,365 — —
+100 831,739 (7,626) (0.9)
+200 823,894 (15,471) (1.8)
The interest rate risk position of the Company is relatively neutral. As a result, the preceding table indicates that, as of June 30, 2026, in the event of a 200 basis point increase in interest rates, whereby rates ramp up evenly over a twelve-month period, net interest income would decrease 1.8%, or $15.5 million. In the event of a 200 basis point decrease in interest rates, whereby rates ramp downward evenly over a twelve-month period, net interest income would decrease 1.7%, or $14.5 million over the same period. In this downward rate scenario, rates on deposits have a repricing floor of zero.
Another measure of interest rate sensitivity is to model changes in economic value of equity through the use of immediate and sustained interest rate shocks. The following table illustrates the result of the economic value of equity model as of June 30, 2026 (dollars in thousands):
Present Value of Equity Present Value of Equity as Percent of Present Value of Assets
Change in interest rates (basis points) Dollar Amount Dollar Change Percent Change Present Value Ratio Percent Change
-200 4,127,170 (107,709) (2.5) 15.5 (6.1)
-100 4,207,491 (27,388) (0.6) 16.1 (2.5)
Static 4,234,879 — — 16.5 —
+100 4,203,089 (31,790) (0.8) 16.7 1.2
+200 4,162,672 (72,207) (1.7) 16.9 2.1
60
The preceding table indicates that as of June 30, 2026, in the event of an immediate and sustained 200 basis point increase in interest rates, the present value of equity is projected to increase 1.7%, or $72.2 million. If rates were to decrease 200 basis points, the present value of equity would decrease 2.5%, or $107.7 million.
Certain shortcomings are inherent in the methodologies used in the above interest rate risk measurements. Modeling changes in net interest income requires the use of certain assumptions regarding prepayment and deposit decay rates, which may or may not reflect the manner in which actual yields and costs respond to changes in market interest rates. While management believes such assumptions are reasonable, there can be no assurance that assumed prepayment rates and decay rates will approximate actual future loan prepayment and deposit withdrawal activity. Moreover, the net interest income table presented assumes that the composition of interest sensitive assets and liabilities existing at the beginning of a period remains constant over the period being measured and also assumes that a particular change in interest rates is reflected uniformly across the yield curve regardless of the duration to maturity or repricing of specific assets and liabilities. Accordingly, although the net interest income table provides an indication of the Company’s interest rate risk exposure at a particular point in time, such measurement is not intended to and does not provide a precise forecast of the effect of changes in market interest rates on the Company’s net interest income and will differ from actual results.