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Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Ares Capital Corp · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
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We are subject to financial market risks, including changes in interest rates and the valuations of our investment portfolio. Uncertainty with respect to the imposition of tariffs on and trade disputes with certain countries, the fluctuations in global interest rates, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, continued conflicts and political unrest in the Middle East and concerns over future increases in inflation or adverse investor sentiment generally, introduced significant volatility in the financial markets, and the effects of this volatility has materially impacted and could continue to materially impact our market risks, including those listed below. For more information concerning these risks and their potential impact on our business and our operating results, see “Risk Factors—General Risk Factors—Difficult market and political conditions may adversely affect our businesses in many ways, including by reducing the value or hampering the performance of our investments or reducing our ability to raise or deploy capital, each of which could have a significant adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations”, “Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Investments—Economic recessions or downturns could impair our portfolio companies and harm our operating results” and “Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Business—Inflation has adversely affected and may continue to adversely affect the business, results of operations and financial condition of our portfolio companies” in our Annual Report.
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Investment Valuation Risk
Because there is not a readily available market value for most of the investments in our portfolio, substantially all of our portfolio investments are valued at fair value as determined in good faith by our investment adviser, as the valuation designee, subject to the oversight of our board of directors based on, among other things, the input of our IVP that have been engaged to support the valuation of each portfolio investment without a readily available market quotation quarterly, beginning as of the third quarter after origination (with certain de minimis exceptions). Due to the inherent uncertainty of determining the fair value of investments that do not have a readily available market value, the fair value of our investments may fluctuate from period to period. Additionally, the fair value of our investments may differ significantly from the values that would have been used had a ready market existed for such investments and may differ materially from the values that we may ultimately realize. Further, such investments are generally subject to legal and other restrictions on resale or otherwise are less liquid than publicly traded securities. If we were required to liquidate a portfolio investment in a forced or liquidation sale, we could realize significantly less than the value at which we have recorded it. In addition, changes in the market environment and other events that may occur over the life of the investments may cause the gains or losses ultimately realized on these investments to be different than the unrealized gains or losses reflected in the valuations currently assigned. See “Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Critical Accounting Estimates” as well as Notes 2 and 8 to our consolidated financial statements for the six months ended June 30, 2026 for more information relating to our investment valuation.
Interest Rate Risk
Interest rate sensitivity refers to the change in our earnings that may result from changes in the level of interest rates. Because we fund a portion of our investments with borrowings, our net investment income is affected by the difference between the rate at which we invest and the rate at which we borrow. As a result, there can be no assurance that a significant change in market interest rates will not have a material adverse effect on our net investment income. See “Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Business—We are exposed to risks associated with changes in interest rates, including the current interest rate environment” in our Annual Report.
In a prolonged low interest rate environment, the difference between the total interest income earned on interest earning assets and the total interest expense incurred on interest bearing liabilities may be compressed, reducing our net income and potentially adversely affecting our operating results. Conversely, in a rising interest rate environment, such difference could potentially increase thereby increasing our net income as indicated per the table below.
As of June 30, 2026, 71% of the investments at fair value in our portfolio bore interest and dividends at variable rates (including our investment in the SDLP Certificates which accounted for 4% of our total investments at fair value), 12% bore interest at fixed rates, 9% were non-income producing, 1% were on non-accrual status and 7% was our equity investment in IHAM which generally pays a quarterly dividend. Additionally, excluding our investment in the SDLP Certificates, 96% of the remaining variable rate investments at fair value contained interest rate floors. The Credit Facilities, the April 2036 CLO Notes, the October 2036 CLO Secured Loans and the January 2038 CLO Notes bear interest at variable rates with no interest rate floors. The Unsecured Notes bear interest at fixed rates, except that the January 2027 Notes, the March 2029 Notes, the July 2029 Notes, the January 2030 Notes, the September 2030 Notes, the April 2031 Notes and the March 2032 Notes have been swapped from a fixed rate to a floating rate through interest rate swaps. The January 2031 Notes have been swapped from a fixed rate to a floating rate through a forward starting interest rate swap, with an effective date of July 15, 2026. See Note 5 to our consolidated financial statements for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 for more information on our debt obligations. See Note 6 to our consolidated financial statements for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 for more information on the interest rate swaps.
We regularly measure our exposure to interest rate risk. We assess interest rate risk and manage our interest rate exposure on an ongoing basis by comparing our interest rate sensitive assets to our interest rate sensitive liabilities. Based on that review, we determine whether or not any hedging transactions are necessary to mitigate exposure to changes in interest rates.
Based on our consolidated balance sheet as of June 30, 2026, the following table shows the annualized impact on net income of base rate changes in interest rates (considering interest rate floors for variable rate instruments) assuming no changes in our investment and borrowing structure:
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(in millions) Basis Point Change Interest and Dividend Income Interest Expense(1) Net Income(2)
Up 300 basis points $ 635 $ 355 $ 280
Up 200 basis points $ 424 $ 236 $ 188
Up 100 basis points $ 212 $ 118 $ 94
Down 100 basis points $ (211) $ (118) $ (93)
Down 200 basis points $ (416) $ (236) $ (180)
Down 300 basis points $ (582) $ (355) $ (227)
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(1)Includes the impact to interest expense related to the interest rate swaps with respect to the January 2027 Notes, the March 2029 Notes, the July 2029 Notes, the January 2030 Notes, the September 2030 Notes, the April 2031 Notes and the March 2032 Notes.
(2)Excludes the impact of any income based fee. See Note 3 to our consolidated financial statements for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 for more information on the income based fee.