← Back to ACRE filing summaryOriginal filing text · Part I
Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
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As part of our risk management strategy, our Manager closely monitors our portfolio and actively manages the credit, interest rate, market, prepayment, financing, real estate and inflation risks associated with holding a portfolio of our target investments. We manage our portfolio through an interactive process with our Manager and Ares Management. Our Manager has an Investment Committee that oversees compliance with our investment strategy and guidelines, loans held for investment portfolio holdings and financing strategy. We seek to manage our risks related to the credit quality of our assets, interest rates, liquidity, prepayment rates and market value while, at the same time, seeking to provide an opportunity to stockholders to realize attractive risk-adjusted returns through ownership of our capital stock. While we do not seek to avoid risk completely, we believe the risks can be quantified from historical experience and seek to actively manage those risks, to earn sufficient compensation to justify taking those risks and to maintain capital levels consistent with the risks we undertake.
Credit Risk
We are subject to varying degrees of credit risk in connection with holding our target investments. We have exposure to credit risk on our CRE loans held for investment. Our Manager seeks to manage credit risk by performing a due diligence process prior to origination or acquisition and through the use of non-recourse financing, when and where available and appropriate. Credit risk is also addressed through our Manager’s ongoing review of our loans held for investment portfolio. In addition, with respect to any particular target investment, our Manager’s investment team evaluates, among other things, relative valuation, comparable analysis, supply and demand trends, shape of yield curves, delinquency and default rates, recovery of various sectors and vintage of collateral.
In the commercial real estate market, certain borrowers have not been able to repay principal upon the loan maturity and may not be able to qualify for loan extensions. Additionally, when tenants are not able to pay rent to their landlords, property owners have difficulties making payments to their lenders. We have continued regular dialogue with our borrowers and our financing providers to assess this credit risk.
Interest Rate Risk
Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors, including fiscal, monetary and trade policies and domestic and international economic and political considerations, as well as other factors beyond our control. We are subject to interest rate risk in connection with our assets and our related financing obligations, including our borrowings under the Financing Agreements. We primarily originate or acquire floating rate mortgage assets and finance those assets with index-matched floating rate liabilities. As a result, we significantly reduce our exposure to changes in portfolio value and cash flow variability related to changes in interest rates. In addition, we regularly measure our exposure to interest rate risk and assess interest rate risk and manage our interest rate exposure on an ongoing basis by comparing our interest rate sensitive assets to our interest rate sensitive liabilities. Based on that review, we determine whether or not we should enter into hedging transactions and derivative financial instruments, such as forward sale commitments and interest rate floors in order to mitigate our exposure to changes in interest rates.
While hedging activities may mitigate our exposure to adverse fluctuations in interest rates, certain hedging transactions that we have entered into or may enter into in the future, such as interest rate swap agreements, may also limit our ability to participate in the benefits of lower interest rates with respect to our investments. In addition, there can be no assurance that we will be able to effectively hedge our interest rate risk. As of June 30, 2026, we did not have hedging or derivative financial instruments in place.
In addition to the risks discussed above, there is also the risk of non-performance on floating rate assets. In the case of a significant increase in interest rates, the additional debt service payments due from our borrowers may strain the operating cash flows of the real estate assets underlying our mortgages and, potentially, contribute to non-performance or, in severe cases, default, which may be mitigated by borrower purchased interest rate caps.
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Interest Rate Effect on Net Income
Our interest income and expense will generally change directionally with index rates. The impact of declining interest rates may be mitigated by interest rate floors and the impact of rising or declining interest rates may be mitigated by certain hedging transactions that we have entered into or may enter into in the future. The following table estimates the hypothetical increases/(decreases) in net income for a twelve month period, assuming (1) an immediate increase or decrease in 30-day SOFR as of June 30, 2026 and (2) no change in the outstanding principal balance of our loans held for investment portfolio and borrowings as of June 30, 2026 ($ in millions):
Change in 30-Day SOFR Increase/(Decrease) in Net Income
Up 100 basis points $2.9
Up 50 basis points $1.4
Down 50 basis points $(1.4)
Down 100 basis points $(1.4)
SOFR at 0 basis points $14.1
The severity of any such impact depends on our asset/liability composition at the time as well as the magnitude and duration of the interest rate increase and any applicable floors or hedging transactions. If any of these events happen, we could experience a decrease in net income or incur a net loss during these periods, which could adversely affect our liquidity and results of operations.
Interest Rate Floor Risk
We primarily originate or acquire floating rate mortgage and mortgage-related assets. Some of these mortgage assets may be subject to interest rate floors. Similarly, some of our borrowing costs may be subject to interest rate floors. In a period of decreasing interest rates, the interest rate yields on our floating rate mortgage assets could decrease, while the interest rate costs on certain of our borrowings could be fixed at a higher floor. In addition, a decrease in interest rates or tightening credit spreads increases the likelihood that certain of our investments will be refinanced at lower rates. These factors could lower our net interest income or cause a net loss during periods of decreasing interest rates, which would harm our financial condition, cash flows and results of operations.
Market Risk
The estimated fair values of our investments fluctuate primarily due to changes in index rates, changes in credit spreads and other factors. In general, in a rising interest rate environment, whether due to increases in index rates or credit spreads, the estimated fair value of our fixed-rate investments would generally be expected to decrease; conversely, in a decreasing interest rate environment, whether due to decreases in index rates or credit spreads, the estimated fair value of our fixed-rate investments would generally be expected to increase. Also, in general, in a widening credit spread environment, the estimated fair value of our floating rate investments would generally be expected to decrease. However, in a compressing credit spread environment, the estimated fair value of our floating rate investments may not increase, particularly if prepayment restrictions are not in place and our floating rate investments are fully prepayable. As market volatility increases or liquidity decreases, the fair value of our investments and liabilities may be adversely impacted.
Prepayment Risk
Our net income (loss) and earnings may be affected by prepayment rates on our existing CRE loans. When we originate our CRE loans, we anticipate that we will generate an expected yield. When borrowers prepay their CRE loans faster than we expect, we may be unable to replace these CRE loans with new CRE loans that will generate yields which are as high as the prepaid CRE loans. If prepayment rates decrease in a high interest rate environment, borrowers exercise extension options on CRE loans or we extend the term of CRE loans, the life of the loans could extend beyond the term of the Financing Agreements that we borrow on to fund our CRE loans. This could have a negative impact on our results of operations. In some situations, we may be forced to fund additional cash collateral in connection with the Financing Agreements or sell assets to maintain adequate liquidity, which could cause us to incur losses.
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Financing Risk
We borrow funds under our Financing Agreements to finance our target assets. We may be subject to risk arising from a default by one of several large banking institutions that are dependent on one another to meet their liquidity or operational needs, so that a default by one institution may cause a series of defaults by the other institutions, and may impact the liquidity of our lenders and their willingness to provide us with borrowings to finance our target assets and other needs.
In addition, our Secured Funding Agreements contain margin call provisions following the occurrence of certain mortgage loan credit events. If we are unable to make the required payment or if we fail to meet or satisfy any of the covenants in our Financing Agreements, we would be in default under these agreements, and our lenders could elect to declare outstanding amounts due and payable, terminate their commitments, require the posting of additional collateral, including cash to satisfy margin calls, and enforce their interests against existing collateral. For example, certain of our Financing Agreements contain (i) negative covenants that limit, among other things, our ability to repurchase our common stock, make distributions to our stockholders, employ leverage beyond certain amounts, sell assets, engage in mergers or consolidations, grant liens, and enter into transactions with affiliates (including amending the Management Agreement in a material respect) and (ii) operating and financial covenants, including those requiring us to maintain a certain tangible net worth, asset coverage ratio, total net leverage ratio and loan concentration. We are also subject to cross-default and acceleration rights with respect to our Financing Agreements. In addition, in the past, our CLO securitizations have contained certain senior note overcollateralization ratio tests. To the extent we issue CLO securitizations in the future and we fail to meet these tests, if included, amounts that would otherwise be used to make payments on the subordinate securities that we would hold would be used to repay principal on the more senior securities to the extent necessary to satisfy any senior note overcollateralization ratio and we may incur significant losses. Our sources of liquidity may be impacted to the extent we do not receive cash payments that we would otherwise expect to receive from the CLO securitizations if these tests were met. Additionally, in such a case, interest income may continue to accrue for the holders of subordinate securities within the CLO securitization notwithstanding the cash being used to repay principal on the more senior securities. This would cause us to recognize income but not have a corresponding amount of cash available for operations or for distribution to our stockholders.
Continued weakness or volatility in the financial markets, the commercial real estate and mortgage markets and the economy generally could adversely affect one or more of our lenders or potential lenders and could cause one or more of our lenders or potential lenders to be unwilling or unable to provide us with financing or to increase the costs of that financing. From time to time, capital markets may also experience periods of disruption and instability, which may adversely affect our ability to refinance our financing arrangements.
Real Estate Risk
Our real estate investments and the value of real estate owned are subject to volatility and may be affected adversely by a number of factors, including, but not limited to, national, regional and local economic conditions (which may be adversely affected by industry slowdowns and other factors); local real estate conditions; changes or continued weakness in specific industry segments; local markets with a significant exposure to the energy sector; construction quality, age and design; demographic factors; insurance costs; and retroactive changes to building or similar codes. Elevated interest rates and inflation have had, and continue to have, an adverse impact on industries whose properties serve as collateral for some of our portfolio investments. Similarly, increased demand for work-from-home arrangements and elevated costs to operate, improve or repurpose office properties have impacted the operations of office properties and rising operating costs, such as property insurance, have further pressured cash flow performance of commercial real estate. Decreases in property values reduce the value of the collateral and the potential proceeds available to a borrower to repay the underlying loan or loans, as the case may be, and reduce the value of properties that we own as a result of default on the underlying loan, each of which could cause us to suffer losses. We seek to manage these risks through our underwriting and asset management processes.
Inflation Risk
Virtually all of our assets and liabilities are sensitive to interest rates. As a result, interest rates and other factors influence our performance far more so than does inflation. Changes in interest rates do not necessarily correlate with inflation rates or changes in inflation rates but adverse changes in inflation or changes in inflation expectations can lead to lower returns on our investments than originally anticipated. Current levels of inflation could exacerbate this possibility. In each case, in general, our activities and balance sheet are measured with reference to historical cost and/or fair market value without considering inflation.
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