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Item 11 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Ryanair Holdings Plc · 20-F · FY 2026 · Period ended Mar 31, 2026
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GENERAL
Ryanair is exposed to market risks relating to fluctuations in commodity prices, carbon pricing, interest rates and currency exchange rates. The objective of financial risk management at Ryanair is to minimize the negative impact of commodity price, carbon pricing, interest rate and foreign exchange rate fluctuations on the Company’s earnings, cash flows and equity.
To manage these risks, Ryanair uses various derivative financial instruments, including currency forwards, jet fuel forward swap contracts and carbon contracts. These derivative financial instruments are generally held to maturity and are not actively traded. The Company enters into these arrangements with the goal of hedging its operational and
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balance sheet risk. However, Ryanair’s exposure to commodity price, carbon pricing, interest rate and currency exchange rate fluctuations cannot be neutralized completely.
In executing its risk management strategy, Ryanair currently enters into forward swap contracts for the purchase of some of the jet fuel (jet kerosene) and carbon forward contracts for some of the carbon allowances, that it expects to use. It also uses foreign currency forward contracts intended to reduce its exposure to risks related to foreign currencies, principally the U.S. dollar. In the past, Ryanair has entered into interest rate contracts with the objective of fixing certain borrowing costs and hedging principal repayments, however given the insignificant amount of debt held at floating interest rates, no such contracts were in place at March 31, 2026. Ryanair is also exposed to the risk that the counterparties to its derivative financial instruments may not be creditworthy. If a counterparty was to default on its obligations under any of the instruments described below, Ryanair’s economic expectations when entering into these arrangements might not be achieved and its financial condition could be adversely affected. Transactions involving derivative financial instruments are also relatively illiquid as compared with those involving other kinds of financial instruments. It is Ryanair’s policy not to enter into transactions involving financial derivatives for speculative purposes.
The following paragraphs describe Ryanair’s exposure and hedging (where applicable) in relation to fuel, carbon, foreign currencies and interest rates, and analyze the sensitivity of the market value, earnings and cash flows of its financial instruments to hypothetical changes in commodity prices, carbon prices, interest rates and exchange rates as if these changes had occurred at March 31, 2026. The range of changes selected for this sensitivity analysis reflects Ryanair’s view of the changes that are reasonably possible over a one-year period.
FUEL PRICE EXPOSURE AND HEDGING
Fuel costs constitute a substantial portion of Ryanair’s operating expenses (approximately 41% and 42% of such expenses in FY26 and FY25, respectively). Fuel hedging is achieved via fuel forward swap contracts (and from time to time via fuel call options). In a fuel forward swap transaction Ryanair and a counterparty agree to exchange payments equal to the difference between a fixed price for a given quantity of jet fuel and the market price for such quantity of jet fuel at a given date in the future, with Ryanair receiving the amount of any excess of such market price over such fixed price and paying to the counterparty the amount of any deficit of such fixed price under such market price. In a fuel call option transaction, a counterparty provides Ryanair with the right, but not the obligation, to purchase a fixed price for a given quantity of jet fuel in exchange for the market price at a given date in the future.
Ryanair has historically entered into arrangements providing for substantial protection against fluctuations in fuel prices, generally through forward swap contracts covering periods of up to 12 to 18 months of anticipated jet fuel requirements. See “Item 3. Key Information—Risk Factors—Risks Related to the Company—Changes in fuel costs and availability affect the Company’s results” for additional information on recent trends in fuel costs and the Company’s related hedging activities, as well as certain associated risks. See also “Item 5. Operating and Financial Review and Prospects—FY26 compared with FY25—Fuel and oil.” For FY26, Ryanair had entered into jet fuel forward swap contracts covering approximately 84% of fuel requirements (2025: approximately 78%). As of March 31, 2026, the Company had entered into jet fuel forward swap contracts covering approximately 80% of its estimated requirements for FY27 at prices equivalent to approximately U.S.$668 per metric ton. The Company has designated the fuel forward swap contracts as hedging instruments in a hedge relationship. The Company believes these hedges to be effective for hedge accounting purposes.
While these hedging strategies can cushion the impact on Ryanair of fuel price increases in the short term, in the medium to longer-term, such strategies cannot be expected to eliminate the impact on the Company of an increase in the market price of jet fuel. The unrealized gains or losses on outstanding forward swap contracts at March 31, 2026 and 2025, based on their fair values, amounted to a €2.1bn asset and €201m liability (gross of tax), respectively. Based on Ryanair’s fuel consumption for FY26, a change of U.S.$1.00 in the average annual price per metric ton of jet fuel
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(before the impact of derivatives) would have caused a change of approximately €5m in Ryanair’s fuel costs. See “Item 3. Key Information—Risk Factors—Risks Related to the Company—Changes in fuel costs and availability affect the company’s results.”
Under IFRS, the Company’s fuel forward swap contracts are treated as cash flow hedges of forecast fuel purchases for risks arising from the commodity price of fuel. The contracts are recorded at fair value in the balance sheet and are re-measured to fair value at the end of each fiscal period through equity to the extent effective, with any ineffectiveness recorded through the income statement. In FY26, the Company recorded a positive fair-value adjustment of €1,830m (net of tax), and in FY25, the Company recorded a negative fair-value adjustment of €176m (net of tax) within other comprehensive income in respect of jet fuel forward swap contracts.
CARBON EXPOSURE AND HEDGING
Ryanair engages in carbon hedging transactions in relation to obligations arising under the EU and UK Emission Trading Schemes. This hedging is achieved via forward contracts. As of March 31, 2026, the Company had entered into forward carbon hedging contracts covering approximately 100% of its estimated requirements for the FY27 at prices equivalent to approximately €72 per allowance respectively. The Company has designated the carbon forward contracts as hedging instruments in a hedge relationship. The Company believes these hedges to be effective for hedge accounting purposes.
While these hedging strategies can cushion the impact on Ryanair of carbon price increases in the short term, in the medium to longer-term, such strategies cannot be expected to eliminate the impact on the Company of an increase in carbon market prices. The unrealized loss on outstanding carbon forward agreements at March 31, 2026, based on their fair values, amounted to €63m. Based on Ryanair’s ETS exposure for FY26, a change of €1.00 in the average ETS allowance price per CO2 ton would have caused a change of approximately €12m in Ryanair’s carbon costs.
In FY26, the Group recognized a cost associated with the purchase of carbon credits in the income statement within ‘Fuel and oil’ of approximately €843m (2025: €822m).
FOREIGN CURRENCY EXPOSURE AND HEDGING
In recent years, Ryanair’s revenues have been denominated primarily in two currencies, the euro and the UK pound sterling. The euro and the UK pound sterling accounted for approximately 66% and 22%, respectively, of Ryanair’s total revenues in FY26 (FY25: 66% and 22%, respectively). As Ryanair reports its results in euro, the Company is not exposed to any material currency risk as a result of its euro-denominated activities. Ryanair’s operating expenses are primarily euro, UK pounds sterling and U.S. dollars. Ryanair’s operations can be subject to significant direct exchange rate risks between the euro and the U.S. dollar because a significant portion of its operating costs (particularly those related to fuel purchases) is incurred in U.S. dollars, while practically none of its revenues are denominated in U.S. dollars. Appreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar positively impacts Ryanair’s operating income because the euro equivalent of its U.S. dollar operating costs decreases, while depreciation of the euro against the U.S. dollar negatively impacts operating income. It is Ryanair’s policy to hedge a significant portion of its exposure to fluctuations in the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the euro. From time to time, Ryanair hedges its operating cash flows in UK pound sterling. Ryanair may choose to sell surplus UK pound sterling cash flows for euro after satisfying its UK pound sterling obligations.
Hedging associated with the income statement. In FY26 and FY25, the Company entered into a series of forward contracts, principally euro/U.S. dollar forward contracts to hedge against variability in cash flows arising from market fluctuations in foreign exchange rates associated with its forecast fuel, maintenance and insurance costs. At March 31,
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2026, the total unrealized loss relating to these contracts amounted to approximately €36m, compared to a €80m total unrealized gain at March 31, 2025.
Under IFRS, these foreign currency forward contracts are treated as cash flow hedges of forecast U.S. dollar purchases to address the risks arising from U.S. dollar exchange rates. The derivatives are recorded at fair value in the balance sheet and are re-measured to fair value at the end of each reporting period through equity to the extent effective, with ineffectiveness recorded through the income statement. Ryanair considers these hedges to be highly effective in offsetting variability in future cash flows arising from fluctuations in exchange rates, because the forward contracts are timed so as to match exactly the amount, currency and maturity date of the forecast foreign currency-denominated expense being hedged.
Hedging associated with the balance sheet. In prior years, the Company entered into a series of cross currency interest rate swaps to manage exposures to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates of U.S. dollar-denominated floating rate borrowings, together with managing the exposures to fluctuations in interest rates on these U.S. dollar-denominated floating rate borrowings. Cross currency interest rate swaps were primarily used to convert a portion of the Company’s U.S. dollar-denominated debt to euro and floating rate interest exposures into fixed rate exposures and were set so as to match exactly the critical terms of the underlying debt being hedged (i.e. notional principal, interest rate settings, re-pricing dates). These cross currency interest rate swaps matured in FY24.
Hedging associated with capital expenditures. During FY26 and FY25, the Company also held a series of euro/U.S. dollar contracts to hedge against foreign exchange movements associated with aircraft purchase commitments under the Boeing contract and capital maintenance, which arise from fluctuations in the euro/U.S. dollar exchange rates. At March 31, 2026, the total unrealized gain relating to these contracts amounted to €85m, compared to €7m unrealized gain at March 31, 2025.
Under IFRS, the Company generally accounts for these contracts as cash flow hedges. Cash flow hedges are recorded at fair value in the balance sheet and are re-measured to fair value at the end of the financial period through equity to the extent effective, with any ineffectiveness recorded through the income statement. The Company has found these hedges to be highly effective in offsetting changes in the fair value of the aircraft purchase commitments arising from fluctuations in exchange rates because the forward exchange contracts are for the same amount, currency and maturity dates as the corresponding aircraft purchase commitments.
If the rate fell by 10% outstanding foreign currency-denominated financial assets and financial liabilities at March 31, 2026 would have a positive impact of €22m on the income statement (net of tax) (2025: €77m; 2024: €77m) and a negative impact of €18m on the income statement (net of tax) (2025: €63m; 2024: €63m) if the rate increased by 10%. The same movement of 10% in foreign currency exchange rates would have a positive €966m impact (net of tax) on equity if the rate fell by 10% and a negative €790m impact (net of tax) if the rate increased by 10% (2025: €518m positive or €424m negative; 2024: €501m positive or €410m negative).
INTEREST RATE EXPOSURE
In the past, Ryanair has entered into interest rate contracts with the objective of fixing certain borrowing costs and hedging principal repayments, however given the insignificant amount of debt held at floating interest rates, no such contracts were in place at March 31, 2026.
Interest rate risk. Based on the levels of and composition of year-end interest bearing assets and liabilities, including derivatives, at March 31, 2026, a plus one percentage point movement in interest rates would result in a respective increase of approximately €24m (net of tax) in net finance income (2025: increase in net finance income of €3m; 2024: increase in net finance expense of €42m) and a minus one percentage point movement in interest rates
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would result in a respective decrease of approximately €32m in net finance income in the income statement (2025: decrease in net finance income of €53m; 2024: decrease in net finance expense of €16m;) and a nil increase or decrease in equity (2025: nil 2024: nil).