← Back to ARR filing summaryOriginal filing text · Part I
Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Armour Residential Reit, Inc. · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
View complete filing on SEC EDGAR ↗This is the extracted source text from the SEC filing. Formatting may differ from the original document.
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
We seek to create stockholder value through thoughtful investment and risk management of a leveraged and diversified portfolio of MBS. While we do not seek to avoid risk completely, we believe the risk can be quantified from historical experience and seek to actively manage that risk, to earn sufficient compensation to justify taking those risks and to maintain capital levels consistent with the risks we undertake.
Interest Rate Risk
Our primary market risk is interest rate risk. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors, including governmental monetary and tax policies, domestic and international economic and political considerations and other factors beyond our control. Changes in the general level of interest rates can affect net interest income, which is the difference between the interest income earned on our assets and the interest expense incurred in connection with our liabilities, by affecting the spread between the interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities. Changes in the level of interest rates also can affect the value of MBS and our ability to realize gains from the sale of these assets. A decline in the value of the MBS pledged as collateral for borrowings under repurchase agreements could result in the counterparties demanding additional collateral pledges or liquidation of some of the existing collateral to reduce borrowing levels.
Our borrowings are not subject to similar restrictions and are generally repurchase agreements of limited duration that track the Federal Funds Rate and SOFR and are periodically refinanced at current market rates. Therefore, on average, our cost of funds may rise or fall more quickly than our earnings rate on our assets. Hence, in a period of increasing interest rates, interest rates on our borrowings could increase without limitation, while the changes in the interest rates on our mortgage related assets could be limited. These factors could lower our net interest income or cause a net loss during periods of rising interest rates, which would negatively impact our liquidity, net income and our ability to make distributions to stockholders.
We anticipate that in most cases the interest rates, interest rate indices and repricing terms of our mortgage assets and our funding sources will not be identical, thereby creating an interest rate mismatch between assets and liabilities. These indices generally move in the same direction, but there can be no assurance that this will continue to occur. Furthermore, our net income may vary somewhat as the spread between one-month interest rates, the typical term for our repurchase agreements, and the interest rates on our mortgage assets varies. During periods of changing interest rates, such interest rate mismatches could negatively impact our net interest income, dividend yield and the market price of our stock.
Another component of interest rate risk is the effect changes in interest rates will have on the market value of our MBS. We face the risk that the market value of our MBS will increase or decrease at different rates than that of our liabilities, including our derivative instruments and obligations to return securities received as collateral.
We primarily assess our interest rate risk by estimating the effective duration of our assets and the effective duration of our liabilities and by estimating the time difference between the interest rate adjustment of our assets and the interest rate adjustment of our liabilities. Effective duration essentially measures the market price volatility of financial instruments as interest rates change. We generally estimate effective duration using various financial models and empirical data. Different models and methodologies can produce different effective duration estimates for the same securities.
The sensitivity analysis tables presented below reflect the estimated impact of an instantaneous parallel shift in the yield curve, up and down 50 and 100 basis points, on the market value of our interest rate-sensitive investments and net interest income, at June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025. It assumes that the mortgage spread on our MBS remains constant. Actual interest rate movements over time will likely be different, and such differences may be material. When evaluating the impact of changes in interest rates, prepayment assumptions and principal reinvestment rates are adjusted based on ACM’s expectations. Interest rates for interest rate swaps and repurchase agreements are assumed to remain positive. The analysis presented utilized assumptions, models and estimates of ACM based on ACM's judgment and experience.
51
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
Market Risk Disclosures (continued)
Percentage Change in Projected
Change in Interest Rates Net Interest Income Portfolio Including Derivatives Shareholder's Equity
June 30, 2026
1.00% 2.61% (0.54)% (4.69)%
0.50% 1.17% (0.18)% (1.60)%
(0.50)% (0.60)% (0.20)% (1.72)%
(1.00)% (0.29)% (0.88)% (7.59)%
December 31, 2025
1.00% (6.31)% (0.99)% (8.98)%
0.50% (3.25)% (0.38)% (3.44)%
(0.50)% 3.55% (0.05)% (0.41)%
(1.00)% 7.46% (0.59)% (5.36)%
While the tables above reflect the estimated immediate impact of interest rate increases and decreases on a static securities portfolio, we rebalance our securities portfolio from time to time either to seek to take advantage of or reduce the impact of changes in interest rates. It is important to note that the impact of changing interest rates on market value and net interest income can change significantly when interest rates change beyond 100 basis points from current levels. Therefore, the volatility in the market value of our assets could increase significantly when interest rates change beyond amounts shown in the tables above. In addition, other factors impact the market value of and net interest income from our interest rate-sensitive investments and derivative instruments, such as the shape of the yield curve, market expectations as to future interest rate changes and other market conditions. Accordingly, interest income would likely differ from that shown above and such difference might be material and adverse to our stockholders.
Mortgage Spread Risk
Weakness in the mortgage market may adversely affect the performance and market value of our investments. This could negatively impact our book value. Furthermore, if our lenders are unwilling or unable to provide additional financing, we could be forced to sell our MBS at an inopportune time when prices are depressed.
The table below quantifies the estimated changes in the fair value of our securities portfolio and in our stockholders' equity as of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025. The estimated impact of changes in spreads is in addition to our interest rate sensitivity presented above. Our securities portfolio's sensitivity to mortgage spread changes will vary with changes in interest rates and in the size and composition of our securities portfolio. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from our estimates.
June 30, 2026 December 31, 2025
Percentage Change in Projected Percentage Change in Projected
Change in MBS spread Portfolio Value Shareholders' Equity Portfolio Value Shareholders' Equity
+25 BPS (1.21)% (10.22)% (1.16)% (10.24)%
+10 BPS (0.48)% (4.09)% (0.46)% (4.10)%
-10 BPS 0.48% 4.09% 0.46% 4.10%
-25 BPS 1.21% 10.22% 1.16% 10.24%
52
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
Market Risk Disclosures (continued)
Prepayment Risk
As we receive payments of principal on our MBS, premiums paid on such securities are amortized against interest income and discounts are accreted to interest income as realized. Premiums arise when we acquire MBS at prices in excess of the principal balance of the mortgage loans underlying such MBS. Conversely, discounts arise when we acquire MBS at prices below the principal balance, adjusted for expected impairment losses, of the mortgage loans underlying such MBS. Volatility in actual prepayment speeds will create volatility in the amount of premium amortization we recognize. Higher speeds will reduce our interest income and lower speeds will increase our interest income.
Credit Risk
We have limited our exposure to impairment losses on our securities portfolio of Agency Securities. The payment of principal and interest on the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae Agency Securities are guaranteed by those respective agencies and the payment of principal and interest on the Agency Securities guaranteed by Ginnie Mae are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remain in conservatorship of the U.S. Government. There can be no assurances as to how or when the U.S. Government will end these conservatorships or how the future profitability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and any future credit rating actions may impact the credit risk associated with Agency Securities and, therefore, the value of the Agency Securities. All of our Agency Securities are issued and guaranteed by GSEs or Ginnie Mae. The GSEs have a long term credit rating of AA+.
Liquidity Risk
Our primary liquidity risk arises from financing long-maturity MBS with short-term debt. The interest rates on our borrowings adjust frequently while the interest rates on our MBS are fixed. Accordingly, in a period of rising interest rates, our borrowing costs will usually increase faster than our interest earnings from MBS. Our repurchase agreements require that we maintain adequate pledged collateral. A decline in the value of the MBS pledged as collateral for borrowings under repurchase agreements could result in the counterparties demanding additional collateral pledges or liquidation of some of the existing collateral to reduce borrowing levels.
Operational Risk
We rely on our financial, accounting and other data processing systems. Computer malware, viruses, computer hacking and phishing attacks have become more prevalent in our industry and may occur on our systems. Although we have not detected a material cybersecurity breach to date, or encountered any risks from cybersecurity threats, including as a result of any previous cybersecurity incidents, that have materially affected or are reasonably likely to affect the Company, including its business strategy, results of operations or financial condition, other financial services institutions have reported material breaches of their systems, some of which have been significant. Even with all reasonable security efforts, not every breach can be prevented or even detected. It is possible that we have experienced an undetected breach. There is no assurance that we, or the third parties that facilitate our business activities, have not or will not experience a breach. It is difficult to determine what, if any, negative impact may directly result from any specific interruption or cyber-attacks or security breaches of our networks or systems (or the networks or systems of third parties that facilitate our business activities), any failure to maintain performance.
ACM has established an IT Governance Committee (the "ITGC") to help mitigate technology risks including cybersecurity. One of the roles of the ITGC is to oversee cyber risk assessments, monitor applicable key risk indicators, review cybersecurity training procedures, oversee the Company’s Cybersecurity Policies, including an incident response plan, and engage third parties to conduct periodic penetration testing. Our cybersecurity risk assessment includes an evaluation of cyber risk related to sensitive data held by third parties on their systems. There is no assurance that these efforts will effectively mitigate cybersecurity risk and mitigation efforts are not an assurance that no cybersecurity incidents will occur.
53
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
Market Risk Disclosures (continued)
In addition, our Audit Committee periodically monitors and oversees our information and cybersecurity risks including reviewing and approving any information and cybersecurity policies, procedures and resources, and reviewing our information and cybersecurity risk assessment, detection, protection, and mitigation systems.
54