← Back to TFSL filing summaryOriginal filing text · Part I
Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Tfs Financial Corporation · 10-Q · Q3 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
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General. The Company's most significant form of market risk has historically been interest rate risk. In general, our assets, consisting primarily of mortgage loans, have longer maturities than our liabilities, consisting primarily of deposits and advances from the FHLB of Cincinnati. As a result, a fundamental component of our business strategy is to manage interest rate risk and limit the exposure of our net interest income to changes in market interest rates. Accordingly, our Board of Directors has established risk parameter limits deemed appropriate given our business strategy, operating environment, capital, liquidity and performance objectives. Additionally, our Board of Directors has authorized the formation of an Asset/Liability Management Committee comprised of key operating personnel, which is responsible for managing this risk in a manner that is consistent with the tolerance limits approved by the Board of Directors. Further, the Board has established the Director's Risk Committee, which, among other responsibilities, conducts regular oversight and review of the guidelines, policies and deliberations of the Asset/Liability Management Committee. We manage our interest rate risk in order to control the exposure
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of our earnings and capital to changes in interest rates. Refer to the Overview section of Item 2 for additional discussion on how we manage interest rate risk.
Economic Value of Equity. Using customized modeling software, the Company and Association prepare periodic estimates of the amounts by which the net present value of cash flows from assets, liabilities and off-balance sheet items (the institution's EVE) would change in the event of a range of assumed changes in market interest rates. The simulation model uses a discounted cash flow analysis and an option-based pricing approach in measuring the interest rate sensitivity of EVE. The model estimates the economic value of each type of asset, liability, and off-balance sheet contract under the assumption that instantaneous changes (measured in basis points) occur at all maturities along the United States Treasury yield curve and other relevant market interest rates. A basis point equals one, one-hundredth of one percent, and 100 basis points equals one percent. The model is tailored specifically to our organization, which we believe improves its predictive accuracy. Computations of prospective effects of hypothetical interest rate changes are based on numerous assumptions, including relative levels of market interest rates, loan prepayments and deposit decay, and should not be relied upon as indicative of actual results.
The manner in which actual yields, costs and consumer behavior respond to changes in market interest rates may vary from the inherent methodologies used to measure interest rate risk through changes in EVE. In this regard, our EVE estimates assume:
•no new growth or business volumes;
•that the composition of our interest-sensitive assets and liabilities existing at the beginning of a period remains constant over the period being measured, except for reductions to reflect mortgage loan principal repayments along with modeled prepayments and defaults, and deposit decays; and
•that a particular change in interest rates is reflected uniformly across the yield curve regardless of the duration or repricing of specific assets and liabilities.
Our simulation model possesses random patterning capabilities and accommodates extensive regression analytics applicable to the prepayment and decay profiles of our borrower and depositor portfolios. The model facilitates the generation of alternative modeling scenarios and provides us with timely decision making data that is integral to our IRR management processes. Modeling our IRR profile and measuring our IRR exposure are processes that are subject to continuous revision, refinement, modification, enhancement, back testing and validation. We continually evaluate, challenge and update the methodology and assumptions used in our IRR model, including behavioral equations that have been derived based on third-party studies of our customers' historical performance patterns. Changes to the methodology and/or assumptions used in the model will result in reported IRR profiles and reported IRR exposures that will be different, and perhaps significantly, from the results reported below.
Net Interest Income. In addition to EVE calculations, we use our simulation model to analyze the sensitivity of our net interest income to changes in interest rates (the institution’s NII). Net interest income is the difference between the interest income that we earn on our interest-earning assets, such as loans and securities, and the interest that we pay on our interest-bearing liabilities, such as deposits and borrowings. In our model, we estimate what our net interest income would be for prospective 12 and 24 month periods using customized (based on our portfolio characteristics) assumptions with respect to loan prepayment rates, default rates, and the implied forward yield curve as of the market date for assumptions related to projected
interest rates. We then calculate what the estimated net interest income would be for the same period under numerous interest rate scenarios. The simulation process is subject to continual enhancement, modification, refinement and adaptation. The Company and Association use a "shocked" assumption in preparing the NII sensitivity simulation estimates for use in its public disclosure. The "shocked" assumption calculates NII sensitivity in the event that the market interest rates used in the simulation were instantly adjusted.
The manner in which actual yields, costs and consumer behavior respond to changes in market interest rates may vary from the inherent methodologies used to measure interest rate risk through NII. In this regard, the interest rate risk information presented below assumes that a particular change in interest rates is reflected uniformly across the yield curve regardless of the duration or repricing of specific assets and liabilities. Accordingly, although interest rate risk calculations provide an indication of our interest rate risk exposure at a particular point in time, such measurements are not intended to and do not provide a precise forecast of the effect of changes in market interest rates on our net interest income and will differ from actual results. In addition to the preparation of computations as described above, we also formulate simulations based on a variety of non-linear changes in interest rates and a variety of non-constant balance sheet composition scenarios.
Other Considerations. The EVE and NII sensitivity analyses are similar in that they both start with the same month-end balance sheet amounts, weighted average coupon and maturity. The underlying prepayment, decay and default assumptions are also the same and they both start with the same month-end "markets" (Treasury and FHLB yield curves, etc.). From that similar starting point, the models follow divergent paths. EVE is a stochastic model using 250 different interest rate paths to compute
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market value at the account level for each of the categories on the balance sheet whereas NII uses the month-end curve to compute interest income/expense at the account level for each of the categories on the balance sheet.
EVE is considered as a point in time calculation with a "liquidation" view of the Company and Association where all the cash flows (including interest, principal and prepayments) are modeled and discounted using discount factors derived from the current market yield curves. It provides a long-term view and helps to define changes in equity and duration as a result of changes in interest rates. On the other hand, NII is based on static balance sheet projections going one year and two years forward and assumes pricing levels based on projected interest rate environments to calculate net interest income. NII sensitivity is calculated to determine the sensitivity of net interest income under different interest rate scenarios. With each of these models, specific policy limits have been established for the Association that are compared with the actual month-end results. These limits are regularly approved by the Association's Board of Directors and are used as benchmarks to evaluate and moderate interest rate risk. In the event that there is a breach of policy limits that extends beyond two consecutive quarter-end measurement periods, management is responsible for taking such action, similar to those described under the preceding heading of General, as may be necessary in order to return the Association's interest rate risk profile to a position that is in compliance with the policy.
The following table presents the estimated changes in the Company’s and Association's EVE and NII at June 30, 2026, that would result from the indicated changes in the United States Treasury yield curve and other relevant market interest rates.
TFS Financial Corporation
Change in Interest Rates (basis points) Estimated EVE (1) Estimated NII (2)
Amount Percentage Change Amount Percentage Change
(Dollars in thousands)
+200 $ 1,337,169 (23.96) % $ 399,155 8.62 %
+100 1,558,432 (11.37) % 384,339 4.59 %
0 1,758,454 — % 367,489 — %
-100 1,888,903 7.42 % 345,666 (5.94) %
-200 1,928,668 9.68 % 319,698 (13.00) %
Third Federal Savings and Loan Association
Change in Interest Rates (basis points) Estimated EVE (1) Estimated NII (2)
Amount Percentage Change Amount Percentage Change
(Dollars in Thousands)
+200 $ 1,169,791 (26.48) % $ 389,516 7.81 %
+100 1,391,054 (12.57) % 376,433 4.19 %
0 1,591,076 — % 361,304 — %
-100 1,721,525 8.20 % 341,191 (5.57) %
-200 1,761,290 10.70 % 316,921 (12.28) %
(1)EVE is the discounted present value of expected cash flows from assets, liabilities and off-balance sheet contracts. Estimated EVE assumes an instantaneous uniform change in interest rates at all maturities.
(2)Estimated NII is calculated for the prospective 12 months ending June 30, 2027, in the event that market interest rates used in the simulation were adjusted instantaneously (termed a "shocked" format) during the 12 month measurement period to an aggregate increase as indicated in the Change in Interest Rates column.
The tables above indicate that at June 30, 2026, in the event of an increase of 200 basis points in interest rates, the Company and Association would experience a 23.96% and 26.48% decrease in EVE, respectively. In the event of a 100 basis point decrease in interest rates, the Company and Association would experience an 7.42% and 8.20% increase in EVE, respectively.
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The following tables are based on the calculations contained in the previous tables, and set forth the change in the EVE at a +200 basis point rate of shock at June 30, 2026, with comparative information as of September 30, 2025. By regulation, the Association must measure and manage its interest rate risk for interest rate shocks relative to established risk tolerances in EVE.
TFS Financial Corporation
Risk Measure (+200 Basis Points Rate Shock) At June 30, 2026 At September 30, 2025
Pre-Shock EVE $ 1,758,454 $ 1,560,859
Post-Shock EVE $ 1,337,169 $ 1,227,595
Amount Change in EVE $ (421,285) $ (333,264)
Percentage Change in EVE (23.96) % (21.35) %
Third Federal Savings and Loan Association
Risk Measure (+200 Basis Points Rate Shock) At June 30, 2026 At September 30, 2025
Pre-Shock EVE $ 1,591,076 $ 1,410,325
Post-Shock EVE $ 1,169,791 $ 1,077,257
Amount Change in EVE $ (421,285) $ (333,068)
Percentage Change in EVE (26.48) % (23.62) %
Accordingly, although the EVE presented in the tables above provides an indication of our interest rate risk exposure as of the indicated dates, such measurements are not intended to and do not provide a precise forecast of the effect of changes in market interest rates on our EVE and will differ from actual results. While our core business activities seek to improve our interest rate risk profile through the origination of Smart Rate (adjustable) loans, home equity lines of credit (adjustable) and fixed-rate loans funded by retail deposits and borrowings from the FHLB, the combined impact of changes in market conditions and balance sheet composition resulted in a deterioration of upside +200 shock valuation sensitivity of 2.61 and 2.86 percentage points at June 30, 2026, when compared to the measures at September 30, 2025, for the Company and Association, respectively. While our core business activities, as described at the beginning of this paragraph, are generally intended to manage the interest rate risk inherent in our balance sheet, the actual impact is determined by a number of factors, including the pace of mortgage asset additions (reductions) to our balance sheet (including consideration of outstanding commitments to originate those assets), in comparison to the pace of the addition (reduction) of longer duration funding sources.