← Back to TWO filing summaryOriginal filing text · Part I
Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Two Harbors Investment Corp. · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
View complete filing on SEC EDGAR ↗This is the extracted source text from the SEC filing. Formatting may differ from the original document.
We seek to manage our risks related to the credit quality of our assets, interest rates, liquidity, prepayment speeds and market value while providing an opportunity to stockholders to realize more stable performance, relative to RMBS portfolios without MSR, across changing market environments. Although we do not seek to avoid risk completely, we believe that risk can be quantified from historical experience, and we seek to manage our risk levels in order to earn sufficient compensation to justify the risks we undertake and to maintain capital levels consistent with taking such risks.
To manage the risks to our portfolio, we employ portfolio-wide and asset-specific risk measurement and management processes in our daily operations. Risk management tools include software and services licensed or purchased from third parties as well as proprietary and third-party analytical tools and models. There can be no guarantee that these tools and methods will protect us from market risks.
Interest Rate Risk
Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors, including fiscal and monetary policies and domestic and international economic and political considerations, as well as other factors beyond our control. We are subject to interest rate risk in connection with our assets and related financing obligations. Additionally, rising interest rates are likely to have an adverse impact on the operational efficiency and, thus profitability, of our loan originations platform.
Subject to maintaining our qualification as a REIT, we engage in a variety of interest rate risk management techniques that seek to mitigate the influence of interest rate changes on the values of our assets. We may enter into a variety of derivative and non-derivative instruments to economically hedge interest rate risk or “duration mismatch (or gap)” by adjusting the duration of our floating-rate borrowings into fixed-rate borrowings to more closely match the duration of our assets. This particularly applies to borrowing agreements with maturities or interest rate resets of less than six months. Typically, the interest receivable terms (i.e., OIS or SOFR) of certain derivatives match the terms of the underlying debt, resulting in an effective conversion of the rate of the related borrowing agreement from floating to fixed. The objective is to manage the cash flows associated with current and anticipated interest payments on borrowings, as well as the ability to roll or refinance borrowings at the desired amount by adjusting the duration.
To help manage the adverse impact of interest rate changes on the value of our portfolio, our cash flows, and our loan origination pipeline (consisting of IRLCs and mortgage loans held-for-sale), we may, at times, enter into various forward contracts, including short securities, TBAs, options, futures, swaps, caps, credit default swaps, total return swaps and forward mortgage loan sale commitments. In executing on our current interest rate risk management strategy, we have entered into TBAs, interest rate swap agreements, futures, options on futures, IRLCs and forward mortgage loan sale commitments. In addition, because MSR are negative duration assets, they may provide a hedge to interest rate exposure on our Agency RMBS portfolio. In hedging interest rate risk, we seek to mitigate the impact of changing interest rates on the value of our investments, improve risk-adjusted returns and, where possible, obtain a favorable spread between the yield on our assets and the cost of our financing. Our hedging methods are based on many factors, including, but not limited to, our estimates with regard to future interest rates.
REIT income arising from “clearly identified” hedging transactions that are entered into to manage the risk of interest rate or price changes with respect to borrowings, including gains from the disposition of such hedging transactions, to the extent the hedging transactions hedge indebtedness incurred, or to be incurred, by the REIT to acquire or carry real estate assets, will not be treated as gross income for purposes of either the 75% or the 95% gross income tests. In general, for a hedging transaction to be “clearly identified,” (i) it must be identified as a hedging transaction before the end of the day on which it is acquired, originated, or entered into, and (ii) the items of risks being hedged must be identified “substantially contemporaneously” with entering into the hedging transaction (generally not more than 35 days after entering into the hedging transaction). We intend to structure any hedging transactions in a manner that does not jeopardize our qualification as a REIT, although this determination depends on an analysis of the facts and circumstances concerning each hedging transaction. We also implement part of our hedging strategy through our TRSs, which are subject to U.S. federal, state and, if applicable, local income tax.
We treat our TBAs as qualifying assets for purposes of the 75% asset test, to the extent set forth in an opinion from Sidley Austin LLP substantially to the effect that, for purposes of the 75% asset test, our ownership of a TBA should be treated as ownership of the underlying Agency RMBS. We also treat income and gains from our TBAs as qualifying income for purposes of the 75% gross income test, to the extent set forth in an opinion from Sidley Austin LLP substantially to the effect that, for purposes of the 75% gross income test, any gain recognized by us in connection with the settlement of our TBAs should be treated as a gain from the sale or disposition of the underlying Agency RMBS.
66
Table of Contents
Interest Rate Effect on Net Interest Income
Our operating results depend in large part on differences between the income earned on our assets and our cost of borrowing and hedging activities. The costs associated with our borrowings are generally based on prevailing market interest rates. During a period of rising interest rates, our borrowing costs generally will increase while the coupon interest earned on our existing portfolio of leveraged fixed-rate Agency RMBS and mortgage loans held-for-sale will remain static. Both of these factors could result in a decline in our net interest spread and net interest margin. The inverse result may occur during a period of falling interest rates. The severity of any such decline or increase in our net interest spread and net interest margin would depend on our asset/liability composition at the time, as well as the magnitude and duration of the interest rate increase or decrease.
Our hedging techniques are partly based on assumed levels of prepayments of our target assets. If prepayments are slower or faster than assumed, the life of the investment will be longer or shorter, which could reduce the effectiveness of any hedging strategies we may use and may cause losses on such transactions. Hedging strategies involving the use of derivative securities are highly complex and may produce volatile returns.
The following analyses of risks are based on our experience, estimates, models and assumptions. The analysis is based on models which utilize estimates of fair value and interest rate sensitivity. Actual economic conditions or implementation of decisions may produce results that differ significantly from the estimates and assumptions used in our models.
We perform interest rate sensitivity analyses on various measures of our financial results and condition by examining how our assets, financing and hedges will perform in various interest rate “shock” scenarios. Two of these measures are presented below in more detail. The first measure is change in annualized net interest income over the next 12 months, including interest spread from our interest rate swaps and float income from custodial accounts associated with our servicing portfolio. The second measure is change in value of financial position, including the value of our derivative assets and liabilities. All changes in value are measured as the change from the June 30, 2026 financial position. All projected changes in annualized net interest income are measured as the change from the projected annualized net interest income based off current performance returns.
Computation of the cash flows for the rate-sensitive assets underpinning change in annualized net interest income are based on assumptions related to, among other things, prepayment speeds, yield on future acquisitions, slope of the yield curve, and size of the portfolio (for example, the assumption for prepayment speeds for Agency RMBS and MSR is that they do not change in response to changes in interest rates). Assumptions for the interest rate sensitive liabilities relate to, among other things, collateral requirements as a percentage of borrowings and amount/term of borrowing. These assumptions may not hold in practice; realized net interest income results may therefore be significantly different from the net interest income produced in scenario analyses. We also note that the uncertainty associated with the estimate of a change in net interest income is directly related to the size of interest rate move considered.
Computation of results for portfolio value involves a two-step process. The first is the use of models to project how the value of interest rate sensitive instruments will change in the scenarios considered. The second, and equally important, step is the improvement of the model projections based on application of our experience in assessing how current market and macroeconomic conditions will affect the prices of various interest rate sensitive instruments. Judgment is best applied to localized (less than 25 bps) interest rate moves. The more an instantaneous interest rate move exceeds 25 bps, the greater the likelihood that accompanying market events are significant enough to warrant reconsideration of interest rate sensitivities. As with net interest income, the uncertainty associated with the estimate of change in portfolio value is therefore directly related to the size of interest rate move considered.
67
Table of Contents
The following interest rate sensitivity table displays the potential impact of instantaneous, parallel changes in interest rates of +/- 25 and +/- 50 bps on annualized net interest income and portfolio value, based on our interest sensitive financial instruments at June 30, 2026. The preceding discussion shows that the results for the 25 bps move scenarios are the best representation of our interest rate exposure, followed by those for the 50 bps move scenarios. This hierarchy reflects our localized approach to managing interest rate risk: monitoring rates and rebalancing our hedges on a day-to-day basis, where rate moves only rarely exceed 25 bps in either direction.
Changes in Interest Rates
(dollars in thousands) -50 bps -25 bps +25 bps +50 bps
Change in annualized net interest income (1): $ 4,232 $ 2,092 $ (1,987) $ (4,033)
% change in net interest income (1) 3.8 % 1.9 % (1.8) % (3.6) %
Change in value of financial position:
Available-for-sale securities $ 82,009 $ 43,940 $ (49,317) $ (103,342)
As a % of common equity 7.3 % 3.9 % (4.4) % (9.2) %
Mortgage servicing rights (2) $ (88,824) $ (42,376) $ 32,838 $ 62,536
As a % of common equity (2) (7.9) % (3.8) % 2.9 % 5.6 %
Mortgage loans held-for-sale $ 86 $ 47 $ (54) $ (115)
As a % of common equity — % — % — % — %
Derivatives, net $ (22,628) $ (7,868) $ 407 $ (5,558)
As a % of common equity (2.0) % (0.7) % 0.1 % (0.5) %
Reverse repurchase agreements $ 29 $ 14 $ (14) $ (29)
As a % of common equity — % — % — % — %
Repurchase agreements $ (3,746) $ (1,873) $ 1,873 $ 3,746
As a % of common equity (0.3) % (0.2) % 0.2 % 0.3 %
Revolving credit facilities $ (179) $ (89) $ 89 $ 177
As a % of common equity — % — % — % — %
Warehouse lines of credit $ (3) $ (1) $ 1 $ 3
As a % of common equity — % — % — % — %
Senior notes $ 1,347 $ 689 $ (716) $ (1,458)
As a % of common equity 0.1 % 0.1 % (0.1) % (0.1) %
Total Net Assets $ (31,909) $ (7,517) $ (14,893) $ (44,040)
As a % of total assets (0.4) % (0.1) % (0.2) % (0.5) %
As a % of common equity (2.8) % (0.7) % (1.3) % (3.9) %
____________________
(1)Amounts include the effect of interest spread from our interest rate swaps and float income from custodial accounts associated with our servicing portfolio, but do not reflect any potential changes to dollar roll income associated with our TBA positions or U.S. Treasury futures income, which are accounted for as derivative instruments in accordance with U.S. GAAP.
(2)Includes the effect of unsettled MSR.
Certain assumptions have been made in connection with the calculation of the information set forth in the foregoing interest rate sensitivity table and, as such, there can be no assurance that assumed events will occur or that other events will not occur that would affect the outcomes. The base interest rate scenario assumes interest rates at June 30, 2026. As discussed, the analysis utilizes assumptions and estimates based on our experience and judgment. Furthermore, future purchases and sales of assets could materially change our interest rate risk profile.
The information set forth in the interest rate sensitivity table above and all related disclosures constitutes forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Exchange Act. While this table reflects the estimated impact of interest rate changes on the static portfolio, we actively manage our portfolio and continuously make adjustments to the size and composition of our asset and hedge portfolio. Actual results could differ significantly from those estimated in the foregoing interest rate sensitivity table.
68
Table of Contents
Prepayment Risk
Prepayment risk is the risk that the principal amount of a mortgage loan will be repaid at a different rate than anticipated. As we receive prepayments of principal on our Agency RMBS, premiums paid on such assets will be amortized against interest income. In general, an increase in prepayment rates will accelerate the amortization of purchase premiums, thereby reducing the interest income earned on the assets.
We believe that we will be able to reinvest proceeds from scheduled principal payments and prepayments at acceptable yields; however, no assurances can be given that, should significant prepayments occur, market conditions would be such that acceptable investments could be identified and the proceeds timely reinvested.
MSR are also subject to prepayment risk in that, generally, an increase in prepayment rates on the mortgage loans underlying the MSR would result in a decline in value of the MSR as the prepayment acts to cut short the anticipated life of the servicing income stream.
Market Risk
Market Value Risk. Our AFS securities are reflected at their estimated fair value, with the difference between amortized cost net of allowance for credit losses and estimated fair value for all AFS securities except certain AFS securities for which we have elected the fair value option reflected in accumulated other comprehensive loss. The estimated fair value of these securities fluctuates primarily due to changes in interest rates, market valuation of credit risks, and other factors. Generally, in a rising interest rate environment, we would expect the fair value of these securities to decrease; conversely, in a decreasing interest rate environment, we would expect the fair value of these securities to increase. As market volatility increases or liquidity decreases, the fair value of our assets may be adversely impacted.
Our MSR are reflected at their estimated fair value. The estimated fair value fluctuates primarily due to changes in interest rates and other factors. Generally, in a rising interest rate environment, we would expect prepayments to decrease and the fair value of our MSR to increase. Conversely, in a decreasing interest rate environment, we would expect prepayments to increase and the fair value of our MSR to decrease.
Our mortgage loans held-for-sale are reflected at their estimated fair value. The estimated fair value fluctuates primarily due to changes in interest rates, market valuation of credit risks and other factors. Generally in a rising rate environment, we would expect the fair value of these loans to decrease; conversely, in a decreasing rate environment, we would expect the fair value of these loans to increase.
Real Estate Risk. Residential property values are subject to volatility and may be affected adversely by a number of factors, including national, regional and local economic conditions; local real estate conditions (such as the supply of housing); changes or continued weakness in specific industry segments; construction quality, age and design; demographic factors; retroactive changes to building or similar codes; and impacts of climate change, natural disasters and other catastrophes. Decreases in property values reduce the value of the collateral for residential mortgage loans and the potential proceeds available to borrowers to repay the loans, which may impact the value of our Agency RMBS due to changes in voluntary and involuntary prepayment speeds, and/or may increase costs to service the residential mortgage loans underlying our MSR.
Liquidity Risk
Our liquidity risk is principally associated with our financing of long-maturity assets with shorter-term borrowings in the form of repurchase agreements and borrowings under revolving credit facilities and warehouse lines of credit. Although the interest rate adjustments of these assets and liabilities fall within the guidelines established by our operating policies, maturities are not required to be, nor are they, matched.
Should the value of our assets pledged as collateral suddenly decrease, lender margin calls could increase, causing an adverse change in our liquidity position. Moreover, the portfolio construction of MSR, which generally have negative duration, combined with levered RMBS, which generally have positive duration, may in certain market scenarios lead to variation margin calls, which could negatively impact our excess cash position. Additionally, if one or more of our repurchase agreement, revolving credit facility or warehouse line of credit counterparties chose not to provide ongoing funding, our ability to finance would decline or exist at possibly less favorable terms. As such, we cannot provide assurance that we will always be able to roll over our repurchase agreements, revolving credit facilities and warehouse lines of credit. See Part I, Item 2, “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Liquidity and Capital Resources” in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for further information about our liquidity and capital resource management.
Credit Risk
We believe that our investment strategy will generally keep our risk of credit losses low to moderate. However, we retain the risk of potential credit losses on our mortgage loans held-for-sale and all of the loans underlying our non-Agency securities.
69
Table of Contents