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Item 11 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Bank Bradesco · 20-F · FY 2025 · Period ended Dec 31, 2025
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AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Market risk is
represented by the possibility of financial losses due to the variation in prices and interest rates of our financial assets, since asset
and liability portfolios may have mismatches of amounts, periods, currencies and indexes. We are exposed to market risk, both in our trading
and banking portfolios. The main market risks of our portfolios are interest rate risk and foreign exchange risk.
We use stress
methodologies such as sensitivity analysis, Economic Value of Equity (EVE), Net Interest Income (NII) and Value at Risk (VaR), among others,
for evaluating our market risk.
Ø
Interest rate risk
Interest rate
risk arises as a result of timing differences on the repricing of assets and liabilities, unexpected changes in the slope and shape of
yield curves, base risk and changes in the correlation of interest rates between different financial instruments/indexes. We are exposed
to the risk of interest rate movements when there is a mismatch between fixed rates and market interest rates. For a discussion of our
management of interest rate sensitivity, see “Item 5.B. Liquidity and Capital Resource – 5.B.70 Interest rate sensitivity”.
Ø
Exchange risk
Exchange risk
arises as a result of our having assets, liabilities and off-balance sheet items that are denominated in, or indexed to, currencies other
than reais, either as a result of trading or in the normal course of banking activities. We control exposure to exchange rate movements
by ensuring that mismatches are managed and monitored, and our policy is to avoid material exchange rate mismatches. For a discussion
of our management of exchange rate sensitivity, see “Item 5.B. Liquidity and Capital Resource – 5.B.80 Foreign
exchange rate sensitivity”.
Ø Market risk of trading activities
We enter into
derivatives transactions to manage our exposure to interest rate and exchange rate risk. As a result, our exposure to the potential losses
described below is generally reduced by these transactions.
Ø
Sensitivity analysis
Below, we present a sensitivity
analysis for our financial exposure in trading and banking portfolios, based on three scenarios applied to market rates and prices. We
considered 25.0% and 50.0% shocks in prices and rates that would adversely affect our positions, based on market information (B3, Anbima,
etc.), where stresses were applied for 1 basis point on the interest rate, being 1.0% variation on prices.
193 – Form 20-F 2025 | Bradesco
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These figures represent
the impact for each scenario in a static portfolio position. Due to the market and portfolio dynamism, these positions change continuously
and do not necessarily reflect the position shown here. In addition, we have a process of ongoing management of the market risk, which
seeks constantly, through the dynamism of the market, manners to mitigate the associated risks, according to the strategy defined by our
Senior Management. Thus, in cases where there is evidence of deterioration of a certain position, proactive actions are taken to minimize
the possible negative impacts, in order to maximize the risk/return ratio.
Risk Factor Market as of December 31, 2025 Scenarios
1 base point shock for interest rate and 1% variation for prices 25% shock for prices and rates 50% shock for prices and rates
Foreign exchange rate R$/USD 5.49 5.55 6.87 8.24
1-year fixed rate in reais 13.8% 13.8% 17.3% 20.7%
Shocks were
also applied to other risk factors and terms of the interest curves. During 2025, the largest depreciation of the real against
the U.S. dollar was 9.28% (increased from R$/US$5.98, on April 12, 2025 to R$/US$5.43, on June 30, 2025), which is below the 25% and 50%
shock scenarios.
The impacts of
these scenarios on our positions would be as follows:
Trading and banking portfolios As of December 31, 2025 R$ in thousands
Risk factors Definition Scenarios (1)
1 2 3
Interest rate in Reais(2) Exposure subject to the variation of fixed interest rates and interest rate coupon (10,533) (3,584,634) (7,069,069)
Price indexes Exposure subject to variations in price index coupon rates (17,802) (2,747,631) (4,869,645)
Exchange coupon Exposure subject to variations in foreign currency coupon rates (1,899) (231,410) (447,013)
Foreign currency Exposure subject to exchange rate variations (4,244) (106,104) (212,207)
Equities Exposure subject to variation in stock prices (35,194) (879,844) (1,759,689)
Sovereign/Eurobonds and Treasuries Exposure subject to variations in the interest rate of securities traded on the international market 2,442 239,377 465,818
Other Exposure not classified in other definitions 935 23,368 46,735
Total excluding correlation of risk factor (66,296) (7,286,879) (13,845,070)
(1) Amounts
net of tax effects; and
(2) As a
reference for the shocks applied to the 1-year vertex, the values were approximately 335 bps and 653, bps (scenarios 2 and 3 respectively)
on December 31, 2025 (on December 31, 2024 - the values were approximately 372 bps and 726 bps in scenarios 2 and 3 respectively).
194 – Form 20-F 2025 | Bradesco
Table of Contents
Trading Portfolio As of December 31, 2025 R$ in thousands
Risk factors Definition Scenarios (1)
1 2 3
Interest rate in Reais(2) Exposure subject to the variation of fixed interest rates and interest rate coupon (318) (102,871) (195,792)
Price indexes Exposure subject to variations in price index coupon rates (294) (54,032) (102,722)
Exchange coupon Exposure subject to variations in foreign currency coupon rates (2) (347) (688)
Foreign currency Exposure subject to exchange rate variations (2,184) (54,595) (109,190)
Equities Exposure subject to variation in stock prices 476 11,888 23,776
Sovereign/Eurobonds and Treasuries Exposure subject to variations in the interest rate of securities traded on the international market 83 6,687 13,058
Other Exposure not classified in other definitions (13) (320) (640)
Total excluding correlation of risk factor (2,252) (193,590) (372,198)
(1) Amounts
net of tax effects; and
(2) As
a reference for the shocks applied to the 1-year vertex, the values were approximately 335 bps and 651 bps (scenarios 2 and 3 respectively)
on December 31, 2025 (on December 31, 2024 - the values were approximately 372 bps and 722 bps in scenarios 2 and 3 respectively).
Ø
Value at Risk (VaR)
For the calculation
of VaR, the Delta-Normal methodology is adopted, with a 99.0% confidence level, and the time horizon applied includes the number of days
required to undo the existing exposures. Additionally, for the measurement of all risk factors of the options portfolio, the historic
simulation models and Delta-Gamma-Vega are applied, whichever is the most conservative of the two, whereby this risk of options is added
to the VaR of the portfolio.
For the calculation
of volatilities, correlations, and historic returns, a minimum window of 252 business days is adopted. The methodology applied and the
existing statistical models are assessed on a permanent basis using backtesting techniques, which compare the VaR with holding periods
of one day and hypothetical results, obtained with the same positions used in the VaR calculation, and effectively considering also the
transactions of the day for which the VaR was estimated.
The main purpose
is to monitor, validate and evaluate the VaR model’s adherence and the number of breaks that occurred should be in line with the
number of breaks accepted by the statistical tests carried out for the required level of confidence of 99.0%. Another purpose is to improve
the models used by us, by way of analyses carried out for different VaR observation periods and confidence levels, both for Total VaR
and by risk factors.
In 2025, the
daily results, both from hypothetical and effective perspectives, exceeded the respective VaR with a confidence level of 99.0%, never
in the hypothetical view and in the effective view. In accordance with the paper published by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
(Supervisory Framework for the use “Backtesting” in Conjunction with the Internal Models Approach to Market Risk Capital Requirements
of January 1996), the deviations would be classified as “either bad luck or the markets moved in a fashion unanticipated by the
model”, that is, the volatility was significantly higher than expected and/or the correlations differed from those presumed by the
model.
In 2025, VaR
of the trading portfolio, at one-day horizon and net of tax effects, presented maximum and minimum values of R$61.7 million in the fourth
quarter and R$9.8 million in the third quarter, respectively. The tables below show the value at risk, according to the methodology of
the VaR.
2025 - R$ in thousands
1st Quarter On March 31
Average Minimum Maximum
Risk Factors
Reais (fixed and floating rate) 6,593 3,083 12,115 5,957
Exchange coupon 118 47 254 182
Foreign currency 4,920 3,133 6,469 4,085
Equities 5,044 2,538 9,892 2,538
Sovereign risk 3,354 2,278 5,226 2,758
Other 9,150 5,913 12,981 9,991
Total VaR 18,199 13,843 23,694 16,470
195 – Form 20-F 2025 | Bradesco
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2025 - R$ in thousands
2nd Quarter On June 30
Average Minimum Maximum
Risk Factors
Reais (fixed and floating rate) 10,950 4,761 19,729 16,442
Exchange coupon 149 99 201 111
Foreign currency 4,297 2,041 7,905 3,978
Equities 2,550 876 6,563 1,156
Sovereign risk 2,621 1,686 3,446 3,049
Other 10,981 2,329 25,543 6,061
Total VaR 20,791 10,289 33,668 19,576
2025 - R$ in thousands
3rd Quarter On September 30
Average Minimum Maximum
Risk Factors
Reais (fixed and floating rate) 19,327 7,440 39,856 17,113
Exchange coupon 130 81 220 101
Foreign currency 5,436 3,273 11,056 5,199
Equities 2,379 995 4,294 2,915
Sovereign risk 3,106 2,447 3,975 2,761
Other 9,387 2,383 20,696 11,367
Total VaR 27,116 9,836 47,490 27,617
2025 - R$ in thousands
4th Quarter On December 31
Average Minimum Maximum
Risk Factors
Reais (fixed and floating rate) 16,457 8,613 25,219 15,299
Exchange coupon 68 42 119 67
Foreign currency 4,342 2,582 6,353 4,031
Equities 4,231 1,906 7,720 1,940
Sovereign risk 4,022 2,855 7,055 7,055
Other 23,031 101 47,326 1,246
Total VaR 38,088 13,399 61,733 14,814
The following
table shows trading portfolio VaR concentration in frequency terms in the year ended December 31, 2025:
Value at Risk (R$ in millions) 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter Annual Average
Up to R$20 71.0% 42.0% 11.5% 2.3% 24.0%
Over R$20 up to R$30 29.0% 42.6% 43.1% 20.5% 32.3%
Over R$30 up to R$40 0.0% 15.4% 28.5% 21.0% 18.5%
Over R$40 up to R$50 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% 24.2% 13.5%
Over R$50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 32.0% 11.8%
196 – Form 20-F 2025 | Bradesco
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