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Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Burford Capital Limited · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
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Market and asset risk
We are exposed to market and asset risk with respect to our marketable securities, due from settlement of capital provision assets, capital provision assets and financial liabilities relating to third-party interests in capital provision assets. With respect to our marketable securities, which primarily consist of government securities, investment grade corporate bonds, asset-backed securities, mutual funds and certificates of deposit, market risk is the risk that the fair value of marketable securities will fluctuate due to changes in market variables, such as interest rates, credit risk, security and bond prices and foreign exchange rates. As of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, should the prices of the investments in corporate bonds and investment funds have been 10% higher or lower, while all other variables remained constant, our unaudited condensed consolidated income and net assets would have increased or decreased, as applicable, by $5.0 million and $8.9 million, respectively.
We only finance capital provision assets upon undertaking an in-house due diligence process. However, capital provision assets involve a high degree of risk, and there can be no assurance of a particular realization on any individual capital provision asset. Certain of our capital provision assets consist of a portfolio of assets, thereby mitigating the impact of the outcome of any single capital provision asset. While the claims underlying our capital provision assets are generally diverse, we monitor and manage the portfolio for related exposures that finance different clients relative to the same or very similar claims, such that the outcomes on those related exposures are likely to be correlated. Capital provision assets include a portfolio with equity risk where the price of a listed equity security is a determinant of the ultimate amount of the realization upon the resolution of the litigation risk. As of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, should the prices of the due from settlement of capital provision assets, capital provision assets and financial liabilities relating to third-party interests in capital provision assets have been 10% higher or lower, while all other variables remained constant, our unaudited condensed consolidated income and net assets would have increased or decreased, as applicable, by $321.4 million and $491.6 million, respectively.
The sensitivity impacts have been provided on a pre-tax basis for both our consolidated income and net assets as we consider the fluctuation in our effective tax rate from period to period could indicate changes in sensitivity not driven by the valuation that are difficult to follow and detract from the comparability of this information.
Liquidity risk
We are exposed to liquidity risk. Our financing of capital provision assets requires capital to meet commitments, as described in note 15 (Financial commitments and contingent liabilities) to our unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements contained in this Form 10-Q, and for settlement of operating liabilities. Our capital provision assets typically require significant capital contributions with little or no immediate return and no guarantee of return or repayment. To manage liquidity risk, we finance assets with a range of anticipated lives and hold marketable securities that can be readily realized to meet those liabilities and commitments. Marketable securities primarily consist of government securities, investment
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grade corporate bonds, asset-backed securities, mutual funds and certificates of deposit, all of which can be redeemed on short notice or sold on an active trading market.
As of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, the aggregate principal amount of our debt securities outstanding was $2.4 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively, which were issued primarily for the purpose of raising sufficient capital to help mitigate liquidity risk. As of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, the future interest payments on our outstanding debt securities amounted to $1.1 billion and $859.4 million, respectively, until their respective maturities in April 2028, April 2030, July 2031, July 2033 and January 2034, at which point the respective aggregate principal amounts will be required to be repaid. See note 10 (Debt) and note 15 (Financial commitments and contingent liabilities) to our unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements contained in this Form 10-Q for additional information with respect to our debt securities, including a schedule of their respective maturities.
Credit risk
We are exposed to credit risk in various asset structures as described in note 2 (Summary of significant accounting policies) to our unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements contained in this Form 10-Q, most of which involve financing sums recoverable only out of successful capital provision assets with a concomitant risk of loss of deployed cost. Upon becoming contractually entitled to proceeds, depending on the structure of the particular capital provision asset, we could be a creditor of, and subject to direct or indirect credit risk from, a claimant, a defendant and/or other parties, or a combination thereof. Moreover, we may be indirectly subject to credit risk to the extent a defendant does not pay a claimant immediately, notwithstanding successful adjudication of a claim in the claimant’s favor. Our credit risk is uncertain given that our entitlement pursuant to our assets is generally not established until a successful resolution of claims, and our potential credit risk is mitigated by the diversity of our counterparties and indirect creditors, and due to a judgment creditor (in contrast to a conventional debtholder and in the absence of an actual bankruptcy of the counterparty) having immediate and unfettered rights of action to, for example, seize assets and garnish cash flows. See “Management's discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations—Economic and market conditions—Party solvency” for additional information with respect to when a claimant or defendant in a matter we are financing becomes insolvent. We are also exposed to credit risk in respect of the marketable securities and cash and cash equivalents. The credit risk of the cash and cash equivalents is mitigated as all cash is placed with reputable banks with a sound credit rating. Marketable securities primarily consist of government securities, investment grade corporate bonds, asset-backed securities, mutual funds and certificates of deposit, all of which can be redeemed on short notice or be sold on an active trading market.
The maximum credit risk exposure represented by cash and cash equivalents, marketable securities, due from settlement of capital provision assets and capital provision assets is specified in our unaudited condensed consolidated statements of financial condition.
In addition, we are exposed to credit risk on financial assets and receivables in other assets, all of which are held at amortized cost. The maximum credit exposure for such amounts was the carrying value of $23.1 million and $21.8 million as of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, respectively. We review the lifetime expected credit loss based on historical collection performance, the specific provisions of any settlement agreement and a forward-looking assessment of macroeconomic factors. Based on this review, we have not identified any material expected credit loss relating to the financial assets held at amortized cost. We recognized no impairments for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 and 2025.
Currency risk
We hold assets and liabilities denominated in currencies other than US dollar, our functional currency, including pound sterling, euro, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Singapore dollar. We are therefore exposed to currency risk, as values of the assets and liabilities denominated in other currencies will fluctuate due to changes in exchange rates. We may use forward exchange contracts from time to time to mitigate currency risk.
As of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, should pound sterling, euro, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Singapore dollar have strengthened or weakened by 10% against US dollar, while all other variables remained constant, our unaudited condensed consolidated capital provision assets and other assets/(liabilities) would have increased or decreased, as applicable, as set forth in the tables below.
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June 30, 2026
($ in thousands) Capitalprovisionassets Other assets/(liabilities) Currency risk exposure of 10 %
US dollar $ 2,846,538 $ (1,723,762) $ —
Pound sterling 26,968 (7,500) 1,947
Euro 274,135 14,264 28,840
Australian dollar 23,152 — 2,315
Canadian dollar 11,316 581 1,190
Singapore dollar 2,568 65 263
Total 3,184,677 (1,716,352) 34,555
December 31, 2025
($ in thousands) Capitalprovisionassets Other assets/(liabilities) Currency risk exposure of 10 %
US dollar $ 5,277,044 $ (2,348,798) $ —
Pound sterling 21,172 (149,342) (12,817)
Euro 269,939 14,475 28,441
Australian dollar 21,524 — 2,152
Canadian dollar 17,747 1,339 1,909
Singapore dollar 2,523 106 263
Total 5,609,949 (2,482,220) 19,948
Interest rate risk
Interest rate risk is the risk that the fair value of future cash flows of a financial instrument will fluctuate because of changes in market interest rates. Our exposure to market risk for changes in floating interest rates relates primarily to our cash and cash equivalents, capital provision assets and certain marketable securities. All cash and cash equivalents bear interest at floating rates. There are certain capital provision assets, due from settlement of capital provision assets and marketable securities that earn interest based on fixed rates, but those assets do not have interest rate risk as they are not exposed to changes in market interest rates. While not interest bearing, the fair value of our capital provision assets is sensitive to changes in interest rates that impact the discount rates applied in measuring fair value. See “Management's discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations—Critical accounting estimates—Fair value of capital provision assets” for additional information with respect to such interest rate sensitivity. Our outstanding debt securities incur interest at a fixed rate and, therefore, are not exposed to changes in market interest rates.
The interest-bearing floating rate assets and liabilities are denominated in both US dollar and pound sterling. As of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, if interest rates had increased or decreased by 25 basis points, while all other variables remained constant, our unaudited condensed consolidated net income/(loss) and net assets would have increased or decreased, as applicable, by $1.7 million and $1.4 million, respectively. For fixed rate assets and liabilities, we estimated that there would be no material impact on our unaudited condensed consolidated net income/(loss) or net assets. Fixed rate liabilities include our outstanding indebtedness as described in note 10 (Debt) to our unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements contained in this Form 10-Q.
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The tables below set forth respective maturity periods of our floating and fixed rate assets and liabilities as of the dates indicated.
June 30, 2026
($ in thousands) Floating Fixed Total
Assets
Less than 3 months $ 696,899 $ 6,711 $ 703,610
3 to 6 months — 1,627 1,627
6 to 12 months — 769 769
1 to 2 years — 13,014 13,014
Greater than 2 years — 649,333 649,333
Liabilities
1 to 2 years — 400,000 400,000
Greater than 2 years — 2,035,000 2,035,000
Net asset/(liabilities) 696,899 (1,763,546) (1,066,647)
December 31, 2025
($ in thousands) Floating Fixed Total
Assets
Less than 3 months $ 566,437 $ 45,109 $ 611,546
3 to 6 months — 27,946 27,946
6 to 12 months — 24,424 24,424
1 to 2 years — 189 189
Greater than 2 years — 554,026 554,026
Liabilities
1 to 2 years — 218,641 218,641
Greater than 2 years — 1,935,000 1,935,000
Net asset/(liabilities) 566,437 (1,501,947) (935,510)