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Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Banc of California, Inc. · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
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This analysis should be read in conjunction with text under the caption "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk" in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, which text is incorporated herein by reference. Our analysis of market risk and market-sensitive financial information contains forward-looking statements and is subject to the disclosure at the beginning of Item 2 regarding such forward-looking information.
Market Risk - Foreign Currency Exposure
We enter into foreign exchange contracts with our clients and counterparty banks primarily for the purpose of offsetting or hedging clients' foreign currency exposures arising out of commercial transactions, and we enter into cross currency swaps and foreign exchange forward contracts to hedge exposures to loans and debt instruments denominated in foreign currencies. We have experienced and will continue to experience fluctuations in our net earnings as a result of transaction gains or losses related to revaluing certain asset and liability balances that are denominated in currencies other than the U.S. Dollar and the derivatives that hedge those exposures. As of June 30, 2026, the U.S. Dollar notional amounts of loans receivable and subordinated debt payable denominated in foreign currencies were $80.1 million and $29.4 million, and the U.S. Dollar notional amounts of derivatives outstanding to hedge these foreign currency exposures were $81.1 million and $29.9 million. We recognized a foreign currency translation net gain of $0.7 million for the six months ended June 30, 2026 and a foreign currency translation net gain of $0.1 million for the six months ended June 30, 2025.
Asset/Liability Management and Interest Rate Sensitivity
Interest Rate Risk - Company Governance. On at least a quarterly basis, we measure our IRR position using two methods: (i) NII simulation analysis and (ii) EVE modeling. The Management Finance Committee ("MFC") and the Finance Committee of the Company's Board of Directors review the results of these analyses at least quarterly. As discussed in more detail below, if projected changes to interest rates cause changes to our simulated net present value of equity and/or NII to be outside our pre-established IRR limits, we may adjust our asset and liability mix in an effort to bring our IRR exposure within our established limits.
The pre-established IRR limits are recommended by management, determined based on analytical review and available peer data published by regulatory agencies about the IRR limits utilized by other regional banks, and documented in the Company's Asset Liability Management Policy. The policy is approved by MFC and the Finance Committee of the Board of Directors annually. We believe our IRR limits are consistent with prevailing practice in the regional banking industry.
We use a balance sheet simulation model (the "IRR Model") to estimate changes in NII and EVE that would result from immediate and sustained changes in interest rates as of the measurement date. This IRR Model assesses the changes in NII and EVE that would occur in response to an instantaneous and sustained increase and decrease in market interest rates of +-100, +-200, +-300, and +-400 basis points. This model is an IRR management tool, and the results are not necessarily an indication of our future NII. The IRR Model has inherent limitations and the model's results are based on a given set of rate changes and assumptions at a single point in time.
The IRR Model is updated at least quarterly, and the IRR Model results are reported to MFC and the Finance Committee of the Company's Board of Directors at each monthly or quarterly meeting, as applicable.
Our Risk When Interest Rates Change. The rates of interest we earn on assets and pay on liabilities generally are established contractually for a period of time, except for non-maturity deposits. Market interest rates change over time. Accordingly, our results of operations, like those of other financial institutions, are impacted by changes in interest rates and the interest rate sensitivity of our assets and liabilities. The risk associated with changes in interest rates and our ability to adapt to these changes is known as IRR and is our most significant market risk.
How We Measure Our Risk of Interest Rate Changes. As part of our attempt to manage our exposure to changes in interest rates and comply with applicable regulations, we have established asset/liability committees to monitor our IRR. In monitoring IRR, we continually analyze and manage assets and liabilities based on their payment streams and interest rates, the timing of their maturities and/or prepayments, and their sensitivity to actual or potential changes in market interest rates.
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The MFC is comprised of select members of senior management. The Company also has a Finance Committee of the Boards of Directors of the Company and the Bank (together with MFC, the “ALCOs”). In order to manage the risk of potential adverse effects of material and prolonged or volatile changes in interest rates on our results of operations, we have adopted asset/liability management policies to align maturities and repricing terms of interest-earning assets to interest-bearing liabilities. The asset/liability management policies establish guidelines for the volume and mix of assets and funding sources taking into account relative costs and spreads, interest rate sensitivity and liquidity needs, while management monitors adherence to those guidelines with oversight by the ALCOs. The objectives are to manage assets and funding sources to produce results that are consistent with liquidity, capital adequacy, growth, risk, and profitability goals. The ALCOs meet no less than quarterly to review, among other things, economic conditions and interest rate outlook, current and projected liquidity needs and capital position, anticipated changes in the volume and mix of assets and liabilities and IRR exposure limits versus current projections pursuant to our EVE analysis.
In order to manage our assets and liabilities and achieve the desired liquidity, credit quality, IRR, profitability, and capital targets, we evaluate various strategies. These include complementing our current loan origination platform through strategic acquisitions of whole loans, strategically managing multiple warehouse relationships, and originating shorter-term consumer loans. We also actively manage the level of investments and duration of investment securities and focus on establishing stable deposit relationships. Additionally, we utilize certain derivatives such as interest rate swaps and collars as hedges to align maturities and repricing terms.
At times, depending on the level of general interest rates, the relationship between long- and short-term interest rates, market conditions and competitive factors, the ALCOs may decide to increase our IRR position within the asset/liability tolerance set forth by our Board of Directors. As part of its procedures, the ALCOs regularly review IRR by forecasting the impact of alternative interest rate environments on NII and our EVE.
Interest Rate Sensitivity of Economic Value of Equity and Net Interest Income
IRR results from our banking activities and is the primary market risk for us. IRR is caused by the following factors:
•Repricing risk - timing differences in the repricing and maturity of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities;
•Option risk - changes in the expected maturities of assets and liabilities, such as borrowers’ ability to prepay loans and depositors’ ability to redeem certificates of deposit before maturity;
•Yield curve risk - changes in the yield curve where interest rates increase or decrease in a nonparallel fashion; and
•Basis risk - changes in spread relationships between different yield curves, such as U.S. Treasuries, U.S. Prime Rate, and SOFR.
Since our earnings are primarily dependent on our ability to generate NII, we focus on actively monitoring and managing the effects of adverse changes in interest rates on our NII. Management of our IRR is overseen by the Finance Committee of the Boards of Directors of the Company and Bank, which delegates the day-to-day management of IRR to the MFC. MFC ensures that the Bank is following the appropriate and current regulatory guidance in the formulation and implementation of our IRR program. The Finance Committee of the Boards of Directors of the Company and the Bank reviews the results of our IRR modeling at least quarterly to ensure that we have appropriately measured our IRR, mitigated our exposures appropriately and any residual risk is acceptable. In addition to our annual review of our Asset Liability Management policy, our Board of Directors periodically reviews the IRR policy limits.
IRR management is an ongoing process that monitors loan and deposit flows, along with investment and funding activities. Effective IRR management begins with understanding the repricing characteristics of our assets and liabilities and estimating an appropriate risk posture based on forecasts, objectives, market expectations, and policy constraints.
IRR exposure is measured using several tools, including a simulation model that performs interest rate sensitivity under multiple scenarios. The model reflects the actual maturities and re-pricing characteristics of interest rate sensitive assets and liabilities and includes instantaneous parallel interest rate shocks. Results are evaluated using two metrics: NII at Risk and EVE. NII at Risk estimates the impact of rate changes on NII using assumptions for assets, liabilities, and derivatives.
The NII simulation estimates changes in NII over the next twelve months from immediate and sustained rate changes as of June 30, 2026. The analysis assumes a static balance sheet with no growth or product mix changes. This model is a risk management tool and does not necessarily predict future NII.
EVE measures the present value of assets minus liabilities and assesses changes in the economic value under various interest rate scenarios. Unlike the NII approach, EVE captures the impact of all anticipated cash flows and provides a longer-term perspective.
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A balance sheet is considered “asset sensitive” when an increase in short-term interest rates is expected to expand our NII, as rates earned on our interest-earning assets reprice higher at a pace faster than rates paid on our interest-bearing liabilities. Conversely, the balance sheet is considered “liability sensitive” when an increase in short-term interest rates is expected to compress our NII, as rates paid on our interest-bearing liabilities reprice higher at a pace faster than rates earned on our interest-earning assets.
At both June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, our IRR profile remained close to "neutral." This position reflects our balanced composition of repricing assets and beta-adjusted repricing deposits and other interest-bearing liabilities over the course of the next twelve months. Given the uncertainty of the magnitude, timing, and direction of future interest rate movements, as well as the shape of the yield curve, actual results may vary materially from those predicted by our model.
The following table presents the projected change in the Company’s EVE at June 30, 2026 and NII over the next twelve months, which would occur upon an immediate change in interest rates, but without giving effect to any steps that management might take to counteract that change:
Change in Interest Rates in Basis Points (bps) (1)
Economic Value of Equity Net Interest Income
Amount Percentage Amount Percentage
June 30, 2026 Amount Change Change Amount Change Change
(Dollars in millions)
+200 bps $ 4,813 $ (434) (8.3) % $ 1,122 $ 16 1.4 %
+100 bps $ 5,106 $ (141) (2.7) % $ 1,116 $ 9 0.8 %
0 bps $ 5,247 $ 1,106
-100 bps $ 5,278 $ 31 0.6 % $ 1,100 $ (6) (0.5) %
-200 bps $ 5,248 $ 1 — % $ 1,097 $ (9) (0.8) %
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(1)Assumes an instantaneous uniform change in interest rates at all maturities and no rate shock has a rate lower than zero percent.
Earnings-at-Risk
In addition to IRR associated with NII, certain noninterest expense items are also sensitive to changes in market interest rates. One such item is the cost of ECRs provided on certain deposit accounts, primarily those associated with our Homeowners Association business. ECRs comprise most of our customer related expense and fluctuate in response to changes in short term rates and can therefore influence the Company's overall earnings sensitivity profile. We expect that a declining interest rate environment would reduce ECR costs and thereby reduce noninterest expense, conversely, when interest rates rise, ECR costs would also rise, thereby increasing noninterest expense. The Company's Earnings-at-Risk modeling incorporates the impact of these rate-sensitive noninterest expenses, in addition to interest income and expense, to assess the effect of interest rate movements on projected earnings over a twelve-month horizon.
As of June 30, 2026, client deposits eligible for ECRs totaled approximately $3.8 billion. Taking into account the rate sensitivity of ECRs, which are primarily attributable to such deposits, the Company's overall earnings profile would be considered "liability sensitive." During the second quarter of 2025, the Company also entered into interest rate collars with a notional value of $1.0 billion to mitigate the risk of increasing interest expense if short term interest rates increase. For further information on the interest rate collars, see "Note 9. Derivatives", in Item 1 of this Form 10-Q.
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