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Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Kaiser Aluminum Corp · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
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The following quantitative and qualitative disclosures about market risk should be read in conjunction with Note 4 and Note 7 of Notes to Interim Consolidated Financial Statements included in this Report. Our operating results are sensitive to changes in the prices of primary aluminum, certain alloying metals, natural gas, electricity, and foreign currency, and also depend to a significant degree upon the volume and mix of products sold to customers. We have historically utilized hedging transactions to lock in a specified price or range of prices for certain products which we sell or consume in our production process, and to mitigate our exposure to changes in energy prices.
Aluminum
During the six months ended June 30, 2026 and 2025, settlements of derivative contracts were for 111.4 million pounds and 61.5 million pounds, respectively, of hedged shipments sold on pricing terms that created aluminum price risk for us. At June 30, 2026, we had derivative contracts with respect to approximately 70.1 million pounds and 6.1 million pounds to hedge sales to be made during the remainder of 2026 and 2027, respectively, on pricing terms that create aluminum price risk for us.
Based on the aluminum derivative positions held by us to hedge firm-price customer sales agreements, we estimate that a $0.10/lb decrease in the LME market price of aluminum as of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, with all other variables held constant, would have resulted in an unrealized mark-to-market loss of $7.6 million and $2.5 million, respectively, with corresponding changes to the net fair value of our aluminum derivative positions. Additionally, we estimate that a $0.05/lb decrease in the MWP as of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, with all other variables held constant, would have resulted in an unrealized mark-to-market loss of $3.8 million and $0.8 million, respectively, with corresponding changes to the net fair value of our aluminum derivative positions.
Alloying Metals
We are exposed to the risk of fluctuating prices of certain alloying metals, especially copper, zinc, and magnesium, to the extent that changes in their prices do not highly correlate with price changes for aluminum. Copper, zinc, magnesium, and certain other metals are used in our remelt operations to cast rolling ingot and extrusion billet with the proper chemistry for our products. From time to time, we enter into forward contract swaps and/or physical delivery commitments with third parties to mitigate our risk from fluctuations in the prices of these alloys. As of June 30, 2026, we had forward swap contracts with settlement dates designed to align with the timing of scheduled purchases of zinc and copper by our manufacturing facilities. We estimate that a $0.10/lb decrease in the market price of zinc and copper as of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, with all other variables held constant, would have resulted in an unrealized mark‑to‑market loss of $0.5 million and $0.6 million, respectively, with corresponding changes to the net fair value of our zinc and copper derivative positions.
Energy
We are exposed to the risk of fluctuating prices for natural gas and electricity. We, from time to time, in the ordinary course of business, enter into hedging transactions and/or firm-price physical delivery commitments with third parties to mitigate our risk from fluctuations in natural gas and electricity prices. We estimate that a $1.00 per mmbtu decrease in natural gas prices would have resulted in an unrealized mark-to-market loss of $4.3 million and $3.1 million as of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, respectively, with corresponding changes to the net fair value of our natural gas derivative positions. We estimate that a $5.00 per Mwh decrease in electricity prices would have resulted in an unrealized mark-to-market loss of $1.9 million, as of June 30, 2026, with corresponding changes to the net fair value of our electricity derivative positions. We had no outstanding electricity derivative positions as of December 31, 2025.
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Foreign Currency
As of June 30, 2026, we maintained limited foreign currency hedge positions related to certain Euro-denominated operating and capital expenditures using forward swap contracts with settlement dates through July 2027. Due to the limited amount of outstanding foreign currency derivative positions, a hypothetical change in foreign currency exchange rates would not have had a material effect on the fair value of our foreign currency derivative positions as of June 30, 2026.