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Item 3 — Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Alerus Financial Corporation · 10-Q · Q2 FY2026 · Period ended Jun 30, 2026
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Market risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in the fair value of financial instruments due to changes in interest rates. Interest rate risk is the risk to earnings and equity value arising from changes in market interest rates and arises in the normal course of business to the extent that there is a divergence between the amount of interest earning assets and the amount of interest‑bearing liabilities that are prepaid/withdrawn, re‑price, or mature in specified periods. The Company seeks to achieve consistent growth in net interest income and equity while managing volatility arising from shifts in market interest rates. The ALCO oversees market risk management, monitoring risk measures, limits, and policy guidelines for managing the amount of interest rate risk and its effect on net interest income and capital. The Bank’s Board of Directors approves policy limits with respect to interest rate risk.
Interest Rate Risk
Interest rate risk management is an active process that encompasses monitoring loan and deposit flows complemented by investment and funding activities. Effective interest rate risk management begins with understanding the dynamic characteristics of assets and liabilities and determining the appropriate interest rate risk position given business activities, management objectives, market expectations and ALCO policy limits and guidelines.
Interest rate risk can come in a variety of forms, including repricing risk, basis risk, yield curve risk and option risk. Repricing risk is the risk of adverse consequences from a change in interest rates that arises because of differences in the timing of when those interest rate changes impact the Company’s assets and liabilities. Basis risk is the risk of adverse consequence resulting from unequal change in the spread between two or more rates for different instruments with the same maturity. Yield curve risk is the risk of adverse consequences resulting from unequal changes in the spread between two or more rates for different maturities for the same or different instruments. Option risk in financial instruments arises from embedded options such as options provided to borrowers to make unscheduled loan prepayments, options provided to debt issuers to exercise call options prior to maturity, and depositor options to make withdrawals and early redemptions.
Management regularly reviews the Company’s exposure to changes in interest rates. Among the factors considered are changes in the mix of interest earning assets and interest‑bearing liabilities, interest rate spreads and repricing periods. The ALCO reviews, on at least a quarterly basis, the interest rate risk position.
The interest‑rate risk position is measured and monitored at the Bank using net interest income simulation models and economic value of equity sensitivity analysis that capture both short‑term and long‑term interest‑rate risk exposure.
Modeling the sensitivity of net interest income and the economic value of equity to changes in market interest rates is highly dependent on numerous assumptions incorporated into the modeling process. The models used for these measurements rely on estimates of the potential impact that changes in interest rates may have on the value and prepayment speeds on all components of the Company’s loan portfolio, investment portfolio, as well as embedded options and cash flows of other assets and liabilities. The balance sheet composition and size are assumed to remain static in the simulation modeling process. The analysis provides a framework as to what the Company’s overall sensitivity position is as of the Company’s most recent reported position and the impact that potential changes in interest rates may have on net interest income and the economic value of the Company’s equity.
Net interest income simulation involves forecasting net interest income under a variety of interest rate scenarios including instantaneous shocks.
The estimated impact on the Company’s net interest income as of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, assuming immediate parallel moves in interest rates, is presented in the table below:
June 30, 2026 December 31, 2025
Following Following Following Following
12 months 24 months 12 months 24 months
+400 basis points 1.0 % 15.7 % -1.2 % 14.0 %
+300 basis points 0.7 % 11.8 % -0.7 % 10.7 %
+200 basis points 0.6 % 8.2 % -0.1 % 7.8 %
+100 basis points -0.1 % 3.9 % 0.1 % 4.1 %
−100 basis points 0.0 % -4.5 % 0.6 % -4.2 %
−200 basis points 1.6 % -6.5 % 2.0 % -7.9 %
−300 basis points 5.8 % -3.3 % 4.2 % -9.5 %
−400 basis points 6.1 % -2.7 % 5.4 % -8.0 %
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Management strategies may impact future reporting periods, as actual results may differ from simulated results due to the timing, magnitude, and frequency of interest rate changes, the difference between actual experience and the characteristics assumed, as well as changes in market conditions. Market-based prepayment speeds are factored into the analysis for loan and securities portfolios. Rate sensitivity for transactional deposit accounts is modeled based on both historical experience and external industry studies.
Management uses an economic value of equity sensitivity analysis to understand the impact of interest rate changes on long‑term cash flows, income, and capital. Economic value of equity is based on discounting the cash flows for all balance sheet instruments under different interest rate scenarios. Deposit premiums are based on external industry studies and utilizing historical experience.
The table below presents the change in the economic value of equity as of June 30, 2026 and December 31, 2025, assuming immediate parallel shifts in interest rates:
June 30, December 31,
2026 2025
+400 basis points -4.0 % -5.4 %
+300 basis points -2.6 % -3.5 %
+200 basis points -0.6 % -1.2 %
+100 basis points 0.1 % -0.1 %
−100 basis points -1.1 % -1.0 %
−200 basis points -3.5 % -3.6 %
−300 basis points -8.5 % -9.0 %
−400 basis points -20.8 % -18.4 %
Operational Risk
Operational risk is the risk of loss due to human behavior, inadequate or failed internal systems and controls, and external influences such as market conditions, fraudulent activities, disasters, and security risks. Management continuously strives to strengthen its system of internal controls, enterprise risk management, operating processes and employee awareness to assess the impact on earnings and capital and to improve the oversight of the Company’s operational risk.
Compliance Risk
Compliance risk represents the risk of regulatory sanctions, reputational impact or financial loss resulting from failure to comply with rules and regulations issued by the various banking agencies and standards of good banking practice. Activities which may expose the Company to compliance risk include, but are not limited to, those dealing with the prevention of money laundering, privacy and data protection, community reinvestment initiatives, fair lending challenges resulting from the expansion of the Company’s banking center network, employment and tax matters.
Strategic and Reputation Risk
Strategic and reputation risk represents the risk of loss due to impairment of reputation, failure to fully develop and execute business plans, failure to assess current and new opportunities in business, markets and products, and any other event not identified in the defined risk types mentioned previously. Mitigation of the various risk elements that represent strategic and/or reputation risk is achieved through initiatives to help management better understand and report on various risks, including those related to the development of new products and business initiatives.